Moldova has declared a state of emergency, while Slovakia, one of the most affected countries, has warned that it could take action against kyiv.
The end of a historic agreement
Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, gas pipelines crossing Ukraine have been an important energy artery for Europe. A five-year agreement signed in 2019 guaranteed the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory even after the Russian invasion in February 2022.
However, Ukraine decided not to renew the contract, marking a radical change in energy relations between both countries, marked by the context of war.
The Ukrainian Minister of Energy, German Galushchenkodescribed the cessation of transit as a “historic event”, stressing that this measure represents a financial blow for Russia and an opportunity for Ukraine to reaffirm its energy independence. However, the measure also poses immediate challenges for several European countries.
What does the cutoff of Russian gas mean for Europe?
Despite the European Union’s efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian gas following the invasion of Ukraine, some countries in the east of the continent still depend significantly on these supplies.
Before the cut, almost a third of Russian gas destined for Europe passed through Ukraine. Although the bloc has diversified its sources, strengthened its energy infrastructure and turned to liquefied natural gas (LNG), some countries such as Moldova and Slovakia face unique difficulties.
In Moldovathe impact is particularly severe. In addition to dealing with internal political tensions related to the Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria, the country has declared a 60-day state of emergency to deal with the crisis.
The outage has also generated diplomatic tensions within the European Union. Slovakia has openly criticized Ukraine’s decision and has started talks with Moscow.
The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Ficowith a recognized pro-Kremlin tendency, has even threatened to cut off electricity supply to Ukraine, a retaliation that could further complicate the already fragile relationship between both countries.
On the other hand, Hungary, which receives most of its Russian gas through alternative routes such as the Black Sea, will not be affected by this interruption. However, its close stance towards Moscow underlines internal divisions within the EU over how to handle energy dependence and relations with Russia.
Only 5% of the total gas imported by the EU
Since the 2022 Russian invasion, the European Union has worked intensively to reduce its energy vulnerability. According to the European Commission, gas supplies crossing Ukraine represent only 5% of total 10,000 million cubic meters that receives the block. This is largely due to the diversification of suppliers and the strengthening of gas storage and transportation infrastructure.
The European Union says it is “prepared” to cut off gas supplied via Ukraine, which corresponds to only 5% of the 10 billion cubic meters that the bloc imports.
5%
Of the total gas imported by the European Union comes from Russia
The EU has strengthened its gas infrastructure in recent years and provided “alternative supplies” to affected countries, so the outage does not pose a serious threat.
However, the challenge persists in smaller, more dependent countries such as Slovakia and Moldova. While some governments see the outage as an opportunity to accelerate the energy transition, others see it as an immediate threat to their economic and political stability.
Will it affect the price of gas in the European market?
Following the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022, the European Union redoubled its efforts to reduce its dependence on the Russian energy apparatus looking for alternative sources and contracts with other countries such as Qatar and the United States that have helped the community bloc keep prices stable despite the disconnection with Russia.
Despite the stoppage of flows, no substantial impacts are expected on the European energy market due to the disconnection with Russia. The gas market maintains stable prices around the 48.50 euros per megawatt hour.
However, despite the EU’s progress in replacing Russian supplies through Ukraine, the continent has felt the impact in the form of higher energy costs that have affected the competitiveness of the industry community, especially the German one against the United States and China.
Furthermore, Ukraine will also feel the effects of this energy disconnection as it faces the loss of some $800 million a year in transit fees from Russia, while Gazprom will lose about 5,000 million of dollars in gas sales.
Where does the gas we consume in Spain come from?
According to data from Europa press, the 45.5% Of the gas that was imported into Spain in 2021 was done through a gas pipeline, and the remaining 54.5% as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Throughout the first quarter of 2022, this second form of fuel has once again surpassed that which arrives by gas pipeline.
The entry points where gas enters the most are connected with North Africa, specifically with Algeria from Almería (Medgaz). Algeria is the main supplier country of natural gas that reaches Spain via gas pipeline, much of which was transported to end of 2021 through the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline.
However, in 2022, a 10.43% of the gas came from Russia, an amount that increased in 2024 to reach 22%, although the Gazprom cut-off is not expected to have a great impact on our country, judging by the reassuring statements of the European Commission, which has already I was aware of the scenario that would arise in 2025.
The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine marks the end of a historic agreement and highlights the complex energy interdependence between Europe and Russia.
Although the continent has made progress in its goal of reducing Moscow’s energy influence, the current situation underlines that The path to energy independence is still full of obstaclesespecially for the most vulnerable nations in Eastern Europe.
#cutoff #Russian #gas #supply #Europe #happen #price
