War of Ukraine What significance can Niinistö’s call put on Putin? Three researchers evaluated

When president Sauli Niinistö speaks on Friday on the phone of the Russian president Vladimir Putin with, the situation is very difficult.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has now continued for more than two weeks, with little sign of fighting.

Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers negotiations were interrupted for a short time on Thursday.

At the same time, Russia has been reported more than 2.5 million people have been forced to flee the country, according to the UN. The city of Mariupol, among others, is fighting hard. One blow hit Mariupol Maternity and Children’s Hospital on Wednesday.

Niinistö also spoke to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky with on Friday. He is scheduled to speak with Putin later, but no time has been made public.

What significance can Niinistö’s call to Putin have in this situation?

HS asked three researchers to evaluate.

Leading researcher Blue Flower Island There are no high hopes for Niinistö’s and Putin’s call from the Foreign Policy Institute.

“It is certainly good that the channels are open, but it has not seemed at all that Russia is willing to look for compromises or even seriously go to negotiate,” says Saari.

The island believes that Niinistö’s primary message should now be to protect civilians.

He notes that everyone would certainly like to see a ceasefire, but that may not seem like a very realistic goal at the moment.

“I could imagine Niinistö highlighting the importance of humanitarian corridors and that in some way efforts should be made to protect civilians and provide them with a safe way out,” he says.

“This may be something that may be being discussed, but it’s really hard to see that Niinistö could play a crucial role in this very moment of war.”

Also research director Hanna Ojanen The University of Tampere believes that Niinistö’s primary message to Putin is now: civilians must be protected.

“You have to be able to let civilians out of the bombed cities. This is the very first thing, ”says Ojanen.

In addition, the significance of the call may be to feel what possible small routes could be towards ending the war.

More foreign leaders, including the President of France Emmanuel Macron and the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have also spoken to Putin recently. The Prime Minister of Israel Naftali Bennet met Putin last Sunday.

So far, the discussions do not seem to have had much of an impact on ending the war or protecting civilians.

It is still worth keeping the lines open from the ditch whenever possible.

“Speaking and listening helps when you have to figure out what war is all about. The call is also a reminder of Putin’s key role and responsibility in it. ”

Nor can it be ruled out from the ditch that Niinistö’s discussion could have some effect.

Ojanen states that that, in addition to the protection of civilians, Niinistö and Putin, as ordinary people, come up with many other important themes, starting with Putin’s lies about the war, how the internal situation in Russia has developed and how many protesters have been arrested.

In this case, however, we go into Russia’s internal affairs, which are more clearly part of the state’s own decision-making and which are difficult to address. Highlighting these can also take up space in the primary and now most acute message.

“It is an easy way to say that there is now a humanitarian catastrophe, that civilians are suffering and that such is not the case,” Ojanen concludes.

Alexander Institute manager Markku Kangaspuro highlights how Niinistö paved the call on Thursday.

He mentioned Macron and Scholz’s connections with Putin and how Niinistö has also been hoped to connect with Putin.

“I have heard from both of them, Macron, about the duty to contact Putin if there is such a connection,” Niinistö said.

From Kangaspuro, this tells us that Niinistö is working in close contact on the issue and, as it were, as a team with like-minded heads of state to continue talks with Putin.

“Then they have some kind of common understanding that they are worth visiting now and should be visited.”

Also Kangaspuro welcomes the fact that the connection with Russia is being kept open, despite the fact that the talks, at least from the outside, have not produced a visible result.

He also recalled that there was no precise information on how the discussions had progressed. It is clear, of course, that no breakthroughs have been achieved.

Kangaspuro states that the EU is trying to put pressure on Russia by all means. However, if at some point it were possible to sit at the negotiating table, the lines must be open.

“It’s the only option it’s a negotiated solution. How to negotiate if the lines are not open. ”

Kangaspurokin believes that the situation of civilians is now at the center of the call.

“Yes, it is without a doubt that that ceasefire must now be brought about and sit at the negotiating table, the attack must now end,” he says.

“Russia is now committing serious war crimes by bombing civilian cities and civilian targets. It is a terrible idea to even imagine what will happen if it launches an attack on Kiev. ”

He considers it possible that Finland’s position and the current NATO debate will also emerge, although this is by no means the main theme of the call.

“I wouldn’t be surprised now that Putin’s own point of view, which he has made very clear and repeated many times, is repetitive.”

What Among the potential influence of Niinistö, Kangaspuro states, among other things, that Niinistö has a long history of conversations with Putin and has been known in the Kremlin as the head of state presenting realistic estimates.

In addition, Niinistö has now discussed both the president of the United States Joe Biden than with the leaders of France and Germany, and he is very well informed.

“Long contact with Putin allows things to be dealt with, I think, very directly and with realistic assessments of the situation.”

In addition, Niinistö is not in the same way with Russia as the leaders of NATO countries, for example.

“It may be that it helps in some way.”