Interview with Elia Morelli, history researcher at the University of Pisa and geopolitical analyst at Domino
US President Joe Biden has said he will cut off supplies of some weapons to Israel if Prime Minister Netanyahu orders an invasion in Rafah. What changes in US-Israel relations? What geopolitical consequences will there be at an international level? Affaritaliani.it he asked Elia Morellihistory researcher at the University of Pisa and geopolitical analyst of the Domino magazine.
Biden has said he will cut off supplies of some weapons to Israel if Prime Minister Netanyahu orders an invasion in Rafah. Is this a historic turning point in relations between the US and Israel?
“Washington would have decided not to send offensive weapons, but only defensive ones. A lexical difference which in reality will not greatly modify American material support. Therefore, I would not consider it a historical turning point, but only a change in tactical approach. With this move the The United States is trying to increase pressure on its Israeli ally, telling it to tone down the conflict and reduce the relentless war campaign in the Gaza Strip, in order to avoid the worsening of the humanitarian crisis, the explosion of escalation, the interruption of negotiations”.
Did Biden make this decision so as not to lose the votes of the Democratic left?
“The American president’s decision is primarily dictated by the need to encourage talks aimed at a ceasefire, which is essential for laying the foundations of a truce and starting to discuss a new regional security structure. Secondly, the massacres carried out by Israeli army in Gaza, with thousands of civilian victims, have aroused the opposition of a component belonging to the center-left of the Democratic Party and unleashed the anger of young American students, revealing how the war also represents a domestic problem, delving into the profound national contradictions, fueling internal unrest. Therefore, the White House’s intervention also has the aim of reducing social tensions in view of the elections.”
Without US weapons, is Israel able to continue the war or could it be in difficulty?
“Tel Aviv is able to continue the current asymmetric conflict against Hamas, above all because Washington intends to reduce the shipment of weapons, not to completely cut off military supplies to the Jewish state, the vanguard of the US deployment in the region. Difficulties could take over in the event of an escalation of conflicts with other local actors and the opening of multiple fronts. So far, Israel has shown its ability to strike deeply at pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, as well as carry out direct attacks in Iranian territory. However, the problems would arise in the event of a head-on clash with Tehran, unlikely at the moment, but above all in the event of a dangerous boiling over on the internal front: the Arabs within with Israeli citizenship and the Palestinians of the West Bank, increasingly reluctant to expand Zionist settlements in the West Bank.”
What would change if Trump won the US presidential election?
“The outcome of the American elections would not change the US posture in the Middle East, where Washington’s plan is clear: stabilize the region through the normalization of bilateral relations between Israel and local actors (in particular Saudi Arabia), so as to design a new security architecture that allows the containment of Iran to be outsourced to regional partners, allowing the United States to partially disengage to concentrate on other strategic quadrants”.
Is Israel at risk of isolation in the world?
“The massacres carried out in the Gaza Strip have eroded Israel’s international consensus and legitimacy before most of the world. Especially towards the countries of the so-called Global South, that is, almost the entire planet with the exception of the broader West. As clearly demonstrated by “the legal request presented by South Africa to the International Criminal Court, in the eyes of peoples who dream of the advent of multipolarism, the Jewish State, accused of ethnocratic colonialism, has definitively transformed itself into an executioner”.
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