Kamala Harris’s razor-thin lead over Donald Trump appears to be shrinking. There are just under six weeks left until the US election.
Washington – See polls Kamala Harris in the race for victory in the US election 2024 just before Donald TrumpBut the already minimal lead is getting smaller, according to a new study. Experts believe that the election in November will be the closest in decades.
Although Harris is still considered the favorite, Trump’s chances have improved in recent days. In the latest update of the prediction model from 538formerly FiveThirtyEightHarris has a 55-to-100 chance of winning the majority of the Electoral College votes, while Trump is given a 45-to-100 chance.
Kamala Harris’ lead in US election “barely better than a coin toss”
How Newsweek reported, this is an improvement compared to the 39 percent chance that the republican on 17 September by 538 – the first time that Trump had received 538election forecast model fell below 40 percent. Harris, the incumbent Vice President under US President Joe Biden, was predicted to have a 61 percent chance of winning about a week ago – she has lost six points in comparison.
G. Elliott Morris, data journalist from 538said the improvement in Trump’s chances was due to the recent swing state polls of the New York Times/Siena and polls from Quinnipiac University. These had shown a closer race than in the previous poll. Harris’ current lead in the race is “barely better than a coin toss,” Morris said. The result could be closer than in any election in nearly 150 years.
Things are getting exciting in the US election campaign
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Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina – Trump is catching up in swing states
In the contested state of Arizona, for example, Trump has overtaken Harris and is now in the lead by 5 points (50 to 45 percent). Polls from August still saw the Democrat ahead there. The poll also shows that Trump is still in the lead in both Georgia (49 to 45 percent) and North Carolina (49 to 47 percent). A poll by New York Times/Siena poll last month showed Harris ahead by two percentage points in North Carolina.
Trump should, according to Newsweek He said he would have to win all three contested swing states and Nevada if he wanted to have a chance of winning the election. Harris, on the other hand, could afford to lose Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada if she could win the three so-called “blue wall” swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Harris can also win the 2024 US election with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan
This would give her the required 270 electoral votes, unless there are surprising results elsewhere. 538 currently predicts that Harris is slightly ahead in all three of these states.
At the New York Times/Siena poll surveyed 713 registered voters in Arizona, 682 registered voters in Georgia and 682 registered voters in North Carolina from September 17-21. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, plus or minus 4.6 percentage points in Georgia and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in North Carolina. (lm)
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