From the first day of the war in Ukraine, Kiev has been one of the most important fronts. Taking the capital and ousting the Zelensky government were the main objective of Putin’s invasion. But after a month of bloody fighting, the capture of Kiev has so far failed. In fact, Ukrainian counter-attacks threaten to encircle the Russian troops northwest of the capital itself.
Before the invasion, Russia has assembled a strong force on Ukraine’s northern border, threatening Kiev directly: the capital is less than a hundred and fifty kilometers from Belarus. But Kiev is strategically less vulnerable than it seems. The center is located on the high ‘right bank’ of the Dnieper River, which is hundreds of meters wide at its narrowest point.
On the north flank is the swampy and densely forested region of Polesia, where the dense coniferous forests are intersected by swamp valleys and difficult to maneuver for heavy armored vehicles. Most roads run east to west, not north to south.
On both the eastern and western sides, Kiev is bordered by suburbs that must first be captured before the storming of the capital can begin. The Irpin, a small river that flows into the Dnieper northwest of Kiev, forms a natural ‘moat’ on the western flank.
The Battle of Kiev in three stages.
Phase 1: Race to Capital
The invasion is less than 24 hours old when Russia tries to hit Ukraine in the heart. On the northwestern side of the city, Russian helicopters drop airmobile units at Antonov airport in Hostomel. The Russians are trying to get hold of the airports in order to fly in more men and equipment and advance to the center.
Also view the photo series: Total destruction in and around Kiev after a month of war
This fails: at Borispyl the Russians are unable to get a foothold and at Hostomel the airmobile units are crushed by a Ukrainian counter-attack. Thus, the surprise attack on the capital failed.
Meanwhile, Russian units storm the nuclear power plant near Chernobyl, which the Ukrainian defenders have to surrender after fierce fighting. This allows the tank columns to advance to the northwestern suburb of Boetsja. In the suburb of Obolon in the north of Kiev, there are firefights between Ukrainian soldiers and Russian scouts and saboteurs. Kiev seems to be falling.
Phase 2: offensive ends
The Ukrainians manage to stop the Russian advance. In Butja, a large column of Russian equipment is destroyed. Then fierce fighting breaks out, including in the suburb of Irpin, in which the local mayor is killed. The defenders have to temporarily withdraw behind the river of the same name, but the Russians fail to push through. After a dike breach, the lowland north of Kiev is flooded, making the front even narrower.
The Russians try to bring in extra equipment and supplies, but because there are so few good roads, there is a huge traffic jam of more than sixty kilometers long, which remains stationary for days. A column of Chechen paramilitaries is knocked out from the air, resulting in many deaths and injuries.
Although the first columns have already reached the eastern suburb of Brovary, the Russians are making little progress here either. Due to the rapid advance across various ‘axes’, logistics is becoming a problem. On the long supply routes, Russian vehicles are vulnerable to attacks by small tufts of Ukrainian soldiers who inflict many casualties with anti-tank weapons supplied by the West. Russia is trying to hit strategic targets in the capital through rocket fire, but the projectiles appear to be mainly killing civilians.
Phase 3: Ukraine strikes back
Although estimates vary widely, it is clear that the Russian army is suffering very heavy casualties. After more than four weeks of fighting, the Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 1,350 soldiers have been killed. Western media put it at 7,000 to 10,000, based on anonymous NATO sources. As Russian forces fight on different fronts, Moscow is short of military personnel to take control of Kiev, but artillery shelling on the suburbs is increasing, resulting in more civilian deaths.
In the fourth week of the war, Ukraine counterattacks around Kiev. Ukrainian units push the Russians back into Irpin. Along the crucial E40 to the west they conquer the town of Makariv.
Also further north, Russian units are on the defensive. The British Ministry of Defense speaks of the “real possibility” that the Russians will be closed in at Irpin and Butja. This threatens a painful Russian defeat at the gates of Kiev.
1 Chernobyl
On day one of the invasion, the Russians captured the nuclear power plant. This left the road to the south open to the Russian tanks.
2 Ivankiv
This town is a crucial road junction. If Ukraine retakes it, tens of thousands of Russian soldiers will be surrounded at the gates of Kiev.
3 Teterivske
Front battles are being fought in Teterivske and Demydiv on the Dnieper. Ukraine is slowly regaining ground in several places in recent days.
4 Irpin
There has been heavy fighting for weeks for the suburbs of Irpin, Boetsja and Hostomel. Butha is in Russian hands, Irpin has partly recaptured Ukraine.
5 Makarivi
This place, important for controlling the road to Lviv, is again largely in Ukrainian hands. The road is being fought for.
5Boryspil
Russia is also unable to push through the eastern flank. On Friday, the mayor of Boryspil called for evacuation due to fierce fighting.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC Handelsblad of 26 March 2022
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of March 26, 2022
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