Catalan elections are never neutral, but since 2017 they have not been so decisive for Spanish politics. Not only is Pedro Sánchez’s legislature at stake, according to several leaders consulted at the highest level not only of the Government, the PSOE and Sumar, but also of the independentists or the PP. A part of the recent history of Spain is also judged. And the result can be definitive. It is no longer just a trial by fire, but another one for a coalition Executive accustomed to poor health. It is the clearest test that will contrast the effects of the policies of the PP and PSOE governments in Catalonia in the last 20 years.
If the independentistas do not add up and Salvador Illa wins comfortably and can even aspire to govern, “it will be the definitive confirmation that Sánchez’s policy was correct and Rajoy’s was wrong, because with the PP’s ‘no to everything’ the the independence movement and with the negotiation of the PSOE with the independentists drop to historic lows,” summarizes a socialist leader. But if the pro-independence supporters join in – most polls indicate that they do not reach 68, but they are not very far away – and there is a possibility that Carles Puigdemont will be elected. president, Sánchez’s failure will have also been very relevant. “It would be a terrible scenario. We work every day so that this does not happen,” says another socialist leader. The president himself has dedicated himself more than ever to the campaign; last week he spent almost the entire week in Catalonia, and he plans to return Thursday and Friday to give the final push with Illa and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who are also very active.
In the PSOE there is a lot of confidence that Illa will win comfortably, but no one is deceived: “there are two different elections. One is the first place, which Illa will win and it will be a great success, but the other is almost more important, and that is that the independentists do not join. If we achieve that, they can say what they want about the legislature entering a crisis, something that remains to be seen, but we will have made a historic leap and not even the PP will be able to deny it,” says another relevant person in the Government.
Within the Executive all conversations inevitably lead to Catalonia. After Sánchez’s threatened resignation, his entire team is working to try to get the legislature back on track and fill it with content. Sumar also puts pressure on us to start as soon as possible with the large agreed measures. There have been many conversations these days to propose ambitious agendas. There are teams also working on the democratic regeneration plan that Sánchez pointed out without details. Others thinking about legal solutions in case the PP maintains the blockade of the CGPJ. There are many social measures in the pipeline. And some Budgets also designed to start negotiating. Everything is ready to start seriously after the European elections, which will stop politics again. But for that, it is essential that the Catalan result be good for the Government. And that, at this moment, according to the most widespread analysis, involves ensuring that the independentists do not gain a majority.
In any case, in La Moncloa they insist that no matter how hard the opposition and even the independentists try, Sánchez’s head is not at risk in these elections. “There is only one thing more difficult than setting up Sánchez’s investiture. Dismantle it,” they repeat like a mantra around the president. There is no possibility of a motion of censure—Junts would have to unite its votes with the PP and Vox—and none of the protagonists of the majority have any interest in being seen as responsible for the arrival of a PP-Vox Government. So the Catalan elections, according to the vision of the president’s team, can complicate the legislature – it was no longer simple – but not overthrow it. The independentists consulted, on the contrary, believe that everything is up in the air because they make decisions in Madrid based on what is happening in Catalonia.
All of Spanish politics lives, therefore, attentive to Catalonia, aware that a few small variations of deputies, which can move by a few thousand votes because a very high participation is not expected, completely alter a story that widely transcends the community and that marks the great political battle of the PSOE and the PP in recent years, which revolves around the political and judicial response to the processes.
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The popular ones do not have a great role in these elections, and are content with rebuilding their political space, burst in this community to the point of irrelevance after the processes. The PP will eat Ciudadanos whole and aspires to scratch something from Vox. He has no chance of being decisive, but Alberto Núñez Feijóo will try to finish off the surprise to Vox and return to discreet positions in Catalonia, around 12-14 seats, and not ridiculous, like the three that the PP won in the last elections, with Pablo Casado at the head of the party. The disastrous Catalans in fact left Casado very weakened, who tried to save himself by announcing that he would sell the headquarters on Génova Street. Now Feijóo is trying to regroup in this key community to build a project that makes him competitive in the general elections in Catalonia, something essential to beat Sánchez, as was seen on June 23.
In the environment of the highest level of power in Spanish politics, there is not as much commitment as in Catalonia to electoral repetition. It will be very difficult to form a Government, several of those consulted admit, but those who emerge most weakened, who will be the ones who have to make the decision – surveys indicate that ERC could be the most affected – will not have any incentive to go to other elections. that could be even worse, several leaders analyze. Everything is very open. But the only thing that is certain is that on Sunday it is not just the distribution of power in Catalonia that is voted on. The story of a good part of the recent history of Spain is voted on and also how a legislature continues that will not finish starting until the Catalan pieces are not all in place.
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