Markus Stoffel, professor of Climate Impacts and Risks at the University of Geneva, told CNN that a large-scale eruption could occur and would be an event for which “humanity has no plan” that would cause climate chaos. And he added that “The question is not if it will happen, but when”. And he explained that the geological evidence suggests a chance of 1 in 6 of a large-scale eruption occurring this century. “And currently the world is not prepared for the impacts it would unleash.”
A more unstable world
Currently, it is estimated that there are about 1,350 potentially active volcanoes and about 800 million people live within about 95 km of some of them. And researchers have been pointing out that the massive eruptions of the last thousands of years cooled the planet between 1 and 1.5 degrees during certain periods of time. For example, heEvidence of the Samalas eruptionin 1257, in Indonesia, suggest that it may have helped trigger the ‘Little Ice Age’, a cold period that lasted until the mid-19th century. But among the various cases, the one of Okmok in Alaska, in the year 43 BC. C., its eruption could have cooled the environment up to 7 degrees Celsius.
And Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, in 1991, while cooling its surroundings by 0.5 degrees, also released 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. This factor is especially worrying since it can affect the circulation of airplanes. AND The aerosol particles formed in the process can scatter sunlight, cooling the planet. In addition, “these particles can fly around the world and last a couple of years,” Alan Robock, a professor of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University and a student of volcanoes, tells CNN.
Let us remember that among the best-known cases is that of Tambora in Indonesia, which in 1815 produced a year without summer in Europe. Insurance company Lloyds calculated that a similar scenario today could affect global food security and increase political tensions. AND Economic losses could amount to more than $3.6 billion in the first year alone.
Furthermore, the difference with previous similar events in history is that “now it is a more unstable world,” explains Michael Rampino, a professor at New York University, who researches the links between volcanic eruptions and climate change. And adds that “The effects could be even worse than those we saw in 1815.”
In our current changing landscape, Stoffel notes that the ocean surface is warming, melting ice decreases pressure, which can allow for increased eruptions and magma to rise faster. Likewise, experts point out that the most extreme precipitation can seep deep into the ground, and can react with magma.
Faced with possible risks, Researchers monitor various points, such as Campi Flegrei, west of the Italian city of Naples, where more than a million people live. Other places are Indonesia or Yellowstone National Park. But the truth is that «what will be next and when, that is still impossible to predict. Massive volcanic eruptions cannot be prevented, but There are ways to prepare.”says Stoffel.
He emphasizes that while some might say that the probability of a massive eruption is still small, “in reality it is not.” AND “We are just beginning to get an idea of what could happen.” Therefore, it has asked experts to evaluate worst-case scenarios, carry out stress tests and develop security plans of food supply and evacuation for the sake of foresight and not alarm.
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