Russia is betting big, planning to launch its first spacecraft to the moon since 1976. After decades of failed space missions, and at a time when the war in Ukraine has made it a pariah on the international scene , Moscow aspires to once again be a major player in the conquest of space and to consolidate an alliance with China. Analysis of a space race in full reconfiguration.
On April 12, 1961, Russian cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin made the first manned flight into space, putting the USSR at the head of the space race. With this achievement, the Soviet giant demonstrated the power of its model against its American rival. Six decades later, Russia hopes to stand out again in the space arena with the launch on Friday, August 11, of Luna-25, a landing probe destined to land on the Moon.
Russia’s Roscosmos space agency said a Soyuz launcher was “assembled” at the Vostochny cosmodrome in the Russian Far East for the launch of Luna-25, which is due to land near the Moon’s South Pole on “complex terrain.” ”. The flight should last between four and five and a half days.”
His mission? “Take samples, analyze the soil, carry out long-term scientific research,” according to the statement from the Russian space agency.
“Luna-25 is part of a program that prepares for moon landings,” summarized Xavier Pasco, an expert on space policy issues and director of the Foundation for Strategic Research. “With this program, the Russians want to show that they are in the competition, despite the situation in Ukraine in which they seem to be trapped.”
A project just like a sea serpent
With Luna-25, Russia played at another level. This is his first launch of a spacecraft to the Moon since 1976, in a very different context from the Soviet heyday. Undermined by debt and corruption, Roscosmos had difficulties in carrying out its projects. Its last public failure was last February, when a Soyuz spacecraft leaked coolant.
The Luna-25 mission itself is a project that resembles a sea serpent: Designed in 1997 on the wreckage of the Soviet Union, it was scheduled for launch in the 2010s but faced continued setbacks. “I no longer know how many launches of Luna-25 have been planned!” confessed René Pischer, representative of the European Space Agency (ESA) in Russia.
The Russian space project also faced the most recent shocks in history. Initially involved in the launch of Luna-25, as well as Luna-26 and especially Luna-27, an ambitious mission for the scientific exploitation of lunar resources, the European Space Agency (ESA) ended all collaboration after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
René Pischer described: “On Luna-27, we were providing two things: drilling aids and navigation tools that help achieve the most accurate landing possible.” The break between the two organizations also seriously affected ExoMars, an ambitious European program to explore the red planet.
Today, European collaboration with Russia only exists in vestigial form. “The level of activity in Russia is much less,” says René Pischer. There remains the collaboration around the International Space Station and the withdrawal of equipment related to the ExoMars mission. It’s sad”.
The jewel of the Soviet legacy
So, without the help of Europe, what are the chances of success of the Luna-25 mission? “Until now, the Russian space sector has survived thanks to international cooperation,” said Isabelle Sourbès-Verger, a geographer and director of research at the CNRS who specializes in comparative analysis of national space policies.
The Russian agency got used to using components of American or European origin. You need to get that ability back. So it will be interesting to see the outcome of that launch: it’s a difficult and complicated mission to the Moon’s South Pole, and it’s been a long time since Russia has succeeded in a space exploration mission.
If successful, Russia would symbolically return to its past. Named after an illustrious series of Soviet missions, Luna-25 openly carries on that legacy. “Vladimir Putin has never been passionate about space, but he is part of the jewels of the Soviet legacy,” stressed Isabelle Sourbès-Verger. “It’s one of his great areas of prestige, along with nuclear,” she added.
In April 2022, during a visit to the Vostochny cosmodrome, the Russian leader recalled that the USSR managed to send Yuri Gagarin into space in 1961 despite the “total sanctions” imposed against it.
To regain its place at the center of the space game, Russia can count on an old ally: China, which has become a major player in space conquest, Beijing plans to co-install a permanent station on the surface of the Moon with Moscow.
An alliance forged a long time ago, since the end of the Soviet Union and strengthened since 2014 in response to the US push. The United States remains by far the country that devotes the most resources to space exploration, and the involvement of private players such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX or Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin has intensified competition in the space race.
“The great issue in space is the return to the Moon,” says Xavier Pasco. “By focusing on this activity, Russia is sending a geopolitical message. For now, it’s a scientific and peaceful matter, but this kind of major program, which will keep us busy for the next 30 years, will probably end up with more political aspects.”
Faced with this reconfiguration that seems to strain relations between blocks, it is difficult to see where international collaboration is. Since the fall of the Soviet bloc, space remained one of the few areas of cooperation between geopolitical rivals; The United States, Russia and Europe worked together on the Space Station (ISS). This is coming to an end, and Russia has already announced its withdrawal from the ISS after 2024. The end of an era?
But not so fast. Isabelle Sourbès-Verger qualified: “We had the period of the space race until 1970, then in a period of cooperation, with the disappearance of the USSR and the recovery of Russian resources. In 2025 or 2030, it will end, and several national programs will develop independently. But it does not mean the end of all solidarity.”
“Human flights, expensive missions with complex logistics, can only be carried out in teams, especially in the case of missions to Mars,” he noted. “It is necessary to maintain this earthly solidarity in the face of the difficulty of the challenge.”
This article was adapted from its original in French
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