If you ask any enthusiast or insider what they think of the Mexico City track, they will probably tell you that it is a “without a soul”. From a driving point of view and the emotion it transmits to drivers and spectators, this is certainly true, but the Hermano Rodriguez racetrack shows such sudden changes in conditions that it seems alive. The fact that it is located at around 2200 meters above sea level means that on Formula 1 cars everything is decidedly closer to the limit: the Power Units, the braking systems, and the tires, which are stressed, moreover, in particular between the many restarts at low speeds with the overload of the rear and the fast central section where a strong front is needed. All with one practically obligatory aerodynamic configuration at maximum load from the rarefied air, which forces engineers to experiment with the impossible on mechanics of the car. This amplifies this enormously the sensitivity of the single-seaters to the slightest changes in conditions, with grip suddenly increasing or decreasing within a few minutes. This year too, all this has emerged clearly, with the performance of the various single-seaters swing throughout the qualifying, which, moreover, often surprised the drivers who found themselves driving cars with reactions completely different from those they had in the third free practice session just a couple of hours earlier.
How the track temperature changed
Right at the end of Q3, Ferrari emerged. The SF23 didn’t even seem to be fighting for the front row until Q2, but the drop in track temperatures continuous along the session ended up doing center the usage window ideal of the Maranello single-seater precisely at the most important moment, ensuring that Leclerc and Sainz would grab the first two positions on the grid. Not just luck However, we also had to be ready and Ferrari he worked well throughout the sessionmanaging to “go after the track” in the correct way, with a good balance management it’s a excellent work by the pilots. We made a graph that combines the lap times in qualifying of the first 8 classified and the track temperature variation.
We focused on asphalt temperature as the air temperature did not vary significantly during the session. Notice how the qualification begins with one very high temperature of the track, around 46 degrees, which puts many teams in crisis, who have to deal with excessive overheating of the tires due to slipping both transversely in the central sector and longitudinally in traction. The cars are in these conditions very loaded like the Red Bull and the McLaren, but also Ricciardo’s Alpha Tauri (capable of expressing high levels of load but which pays with high resistance to progress) managed to to emerge limiting lateral slip, while the Ferraris were almost more comfortable with the medium mix, equipped with superior thermal inertia. During the session the temperature dropped until around mid-Q2, with a relative minimum of 43.3°C, but then quickly returned to highs. In this movement it was Ferrari who was in most difficulty, in particular with Sainz, while the Mercedes they seemed to find a favorable window. However, the temperature dropped further, with a sharp jump at the beginning of Q3 up to 41.6 degrees, where it then stabilized for a while. It’s here the SF23 literally lit up. Leclerc and Sainz found themselves in their hands with a car with a level of grip never experienced before and immediately took the front row without being asked. In the very last stages of Q3 the track temperature rose started to go down againwith a last measured value of 39.8 degrees, at that point becoming “too” cold for the cars, so much so that almost no one at that point managed to improve the time in the second attempt, leaving the two reds at the top of the standings. It should be noted that he was among the few to improve in the second attempt Max Verstappenconfirming two things: the first is that, evidently, the first lap of the three-time world champion had not been irresistible, the second is that the RB19 remains the most complete carvery fast in all track conditions, but which, as we already mentioned after free practice, can sometimes do not match the performance peaks of individual rivals in very specific conditions favorable to them.
Ferrari lots of power: between sprinting speed and burning restarts
We then compared the laps of Verstappen and Leclerc to get a more precise idea of the final settings chosen by the teams and the strengths and weaknesses of the two cars.
Looking at the graph we first notice a very fast Ferrari in all corners. Looking also at the good results of Haas and the excellent results of the two Alfa Saubers, it seems that the Power Unit no longer fears altitude (2022 was an ordeal in this respect), but indeed it really has great potential, to be confirmed, obviously, over the race distance. Leclerc’s SF23 then proves to be decidedly high-performance in all brakingand almost always also in the subsequent phases of tractionto report a longitudinal axis particularly strong for the red, as we had seen at the start of free practice. The impression is that the pilots and engineers have managed to collect all the data and put together a suspension package structure that guarantees maximizing the car’s strengths. Verstappen is then faster in the central sector, a section where the stability of the RB19 combined with the strong front and the load undoubtedly give it a great advantage over the red, but the possibility of exploiting the grip of the new C5 soft tire in qualifying somehow this kind of differences, causing Leclerc to leave only a tenth in that stretch. Also there rotation of the car in the stadium area is excellent, with Leclerc gaining almost another tenth, confirming a car in the perfect operating windowso much to have tires still in good shape at the end of the tour.
Expectations for the race: Ferrari helped by the difficulties of Norris and Mercedes
There bad qualifying for Mercedes and Mclarenand the fantastic performance of Ricciardowho gets behind Perez at his home, perhaps giving a final blow to his seat in Red Bull, leave, at least at the start, the two Ferraris practically fighting with Verstappen alone. The Dutchman showed a substantial advantage on the pace and the start could be decisive, with a fast & furious chase up to Turn 1 between the two single-seaters faster on the straightor Ferrari And RedBull. If the two redheads come out on top then they can hope to invent something on their profile tactical-strategicperhaps playing two against one, to try to contain Verstappen as much as possible so that we can have a hope of victory. It won’t be easy and Perez should also have the strength to easily overtake Ricciardo and follow Verstappen in a hypothetical comeback. If it isn’t decided at the start, the race could therefore be very interesting, with the Ferraris leading the way However, they do not start as favouritesexpected from an arduous undertaking such as keeping the much faster Red Bulls behind, but who at least will try, making the race much more interesting than what was expected after free practice.
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