The talks between Washington and Caracas in the framework of the Ukraine war have brought the first agreements in years between the two administrations. The government of Nicolás Maduro has released prisoners considered “political” by the United States in a context in which Venezuela could try to export oil to the North American giant again.
It is the most significant rapprochement between the United States and Venezuela in years. The release of two considered US political prisoners and the willingness to resume dialogue with the Venezuelan opposition in Mexico are the first actions of Nicolás Maduro after meeting with a high-level delegation sent by Washington to Caracas last weekend.
President Joe Biden publicly thanked the gesture, in which he released the former director of CITGO, Gustavo Adolfo Cárdenas who, along with five other executives of the subsidiary of the oil company PDVSA, was arrested in 2017 and sentenced to 8 years and 10 years. months in prison after being accused of corruption.
Cuban-American citizen Jorge Antonio Fernández, detained in February 2021 after being accused of terrorism, was also released for carrying a drone in Táchira state. Future releases are not ruled out.
The approach of the United States to the government of Nicolás Maduro, whom it does not recognize as president and has publicly branded as a dictator, surprised even the Venezuelan opposition, which preferred to remain silent in the midst of the talks.
Four days after the unexpected meeting, the interim government headed by Juan Guaidó reacted through a statement saluting the releases and warning that “any lifting of sanctions must be conditioned on real progress towards the transition to democracy and freedom in Venezuela.” . Otherwise, the statement adds, “it would only strengthen the authoritarianism that threatens the world today.”
Venezuelan oil as a solution to the energy crisis
Analysts agree that it has been a strategic move by Washington, which seeks to alleviate the impact that the United States is experiencing in economic and energy matters after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
This Tuesday, the North American giant prohibited imports of oil and gas from Russia, as part of the sanctions imposed on the Kremlin for invading Ukraine and also reached historic levels in fuel prices not seen since 2008. What many are now wondering is : Is Venezuela capable of supplying Russia in imports of crude oil for the US?
The economist and oil expert José Toro Hardy is blunt in answering: “No”. The destruction of the oil industry under the so-called Bolivarian revolution has led to production levels of 660,000 barrels per day on average, according to Platts Analytics.
“In order to increase oil production and return to previous levels (an average of 3 million barrels per day as in 1998), it has been estimated that, between investments and expenses, a figure of the order of 25 billion dollars per year would have to be allocated. for the next 8 or 10 years. The Venezuelan state does not have the slightest possibility of making these investments. Venezuela is not in a position to increase its oil production in time to replace Russia.
Toro Hardy also explains that the oil that Venezuela is currently producing is fundamentally extra-heavy crude oil from the Orinoco Belt that cannot be marketed in the form in which it is produced. In order to market it, Venezuela imports condensates from Iran, which naturally will also rise in price. The production of medium crude from the Maracaibo Lake Basin, adds the expert, “has basically been abandoned.”
In the opinion of Mariano de Alba, an expert lawyer in international law, the consequences of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are opening a window for Maduro that without the war he probably would not have had.
“What really worries Maduro and his government is being able to reach the year 2024 in a better economic position, which he initially thought would come due to his ties with countries in the East and the Persian Gulf, now more difficult and unlikely due to the imminent economic consequences of the war”, so the US offer becomes a great opportunity.
“The option that the US is giving requires concessions, betting on the possibility that the United States will issue some licenses that allow companies like Chevron and the Indian oil company ONGC, which are interested in doing business with Venezuela, to help PDVSA to increase production and that is what brings a substantial increase in income to the Government”.
When asked what these concessions could be, De Alba highlights the release of US political prisoners as a priority. He also the reactivation of the dialogue in Mexico, suspended after the extradition to the United States of Alex Saab, designated as the alleged figurehead of Nicolás Maduro.
How is the opposition in the midst of these negotiations?
“I think it is clear that it is weakened, especially considering that it was not even reported before that move and it caught that part of the opposition by surprise,” the also senior adviser to Crisis Group told France 24.
He considers that it would also be at risk that this recognition of Juan Guaidó as president of Venezuela could disappear. “If the talks advance, one of the concessions that Maduro could ask for and that the United States could also think about is a resumption of diplomatic relations where, for example, the US government can once again have some presence in Caracas. If the United States partially or minimally reestablishes diplomatic relations with Maduro, then obviously that leads to a non-recognition of the opposition Interim Government.”
Although it is true that Maduro is today in a very comfortable political position despite the economic crisis that Venezuela is going through, the opposition persists in a situation of division and lack of clarity of strategy and the United States today has other interests as a priority.
De Alba recalls that it cannot be ignored that it has been the Venezuelan opposition itself that has asked the United States to ease sanctions as a negotiation strategy in exchange for electoral conditions for the 2024 presidential elections, for which the United States does not consider .has abandoned his support for the restoration of democracy in Venezuela.
This Tuesday the press conference of the president of the National Assembly Jorge Rodríguez, (parliament not recognized by the US), was suspended, in which he was expected to offer details about the meeting with representatives of the White House in which he was present together with to the first lady Cilia Flores. At the moment, she has not been summoned again. For the writing of this article, France 24 also contacted representatives of the Venezuelan opposition, who preferred not to comment on the controversial meeting.