Estimate for 2022 reduced from 6.70% to 6.61%, and for 2023, it is at 5.27%; projections remain above IPCA targets
The financial market reduced its inflation estimate for the 10th consecutive week. Last week (29.Aug.2022), the projection was 6.70%. Now it is at 6.61%.
The data are from the Focus Bulletin, from the Central Bank, released this Monday (5.Sep.2022). Here’s the intact of the bulletin (700 KB).
The report is published on Mondays and summarizes the statistical projections of analysts consulted by the BC since 2000. It is possible to know the institutions that hit the most here.
For next year, the projection of the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) also decreased. It went from 5.30% to 5.27%. It is the 3rd consecutive reduction. 1 month ago, the estimate was 5.36%.
Despite the consecutive declines, the percentage should end 2022 outside the target set by the CMN (National Monetary Council), from 3% to 5%. The projection for next year is also above the target set by the agency, which is 3.25%, with a tolerance range that goes from 1.75% to 4.75%.
Analysts revised the forecast for economic growth up, also for the 10th straight week. The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) projection for 2022 rose from 2.10% to 2.26%. For 2023, the estimate is at 5.27% -compared to 5.30% in the previous week.
The Brazilian economy grew 1.2% in the 2nd quarter of 2022 compared to the 1st quarter, according to data released by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) last Thursday (1st.set).
The Focus projections showed that economists did not change the projections for the basic rate, the Selic, for 2022. For next year, analysts raised the estimate from 11% to 11.25%.
In relation to the dollar, the projection remains the same as in the last 6 weeks: R$ 5.20 for 2022 and 2023.
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