HS analysis|It seems that those who fear the rise of the extreme right in Europe voted for Andersson en masse. This time, the immigration talks of basic Finns didn’t bite, writes HS’s political editor Teemu Luukka.
Euro elections the result is a real surprise for pollsters, parties and political experts as well.
The chairman of the Left Alliance Li Andersson’s the record popularity revolutionized the election results in a historic way.
Andersson brings two MEPs with him to parliament, bringing the party’s number of MEPs from one to three. When 98.8 percent of the votes had been counted, the party was becoming the most popular party after the coalition.
The Left Alliance may even get more votes in Turku than the coalition, even though Turku has traditionally been a strong coalition area.
The Left Alliance got by far its best result ever. Äänisaalis is the actual culmination of Andersson’s expiring presidency.
It seems that those who fear the rise of the extreme right in Europe voted for Andersson en masse. Those worried about the climate also voted for the Left Alliance, but in addition Petteri Orpon (kok) those who are annoyed by the government’s policy.
for Sdp the result was depressing, although pretty much at the level of the previous EU elections. When 98.8 percent of the votes had been counted, Sdp was about to get two MEPs, as the party has now.
However, the party was clearly behind the left alliance. The Euro election result hints at what level Sdp’s support might be without the support brought by Orpo’s government and its austerity policy.
The support of the Greens also decreased. However, it is not a dramatic drop, as the comparison year 2019 was exceptionally good for the greens. At that time, the European elections were held with climate themes, and it gave the Greens the wildest result ever.
The Greens’ EU election result is still clearly higher than the party’s support in the latest polls measuring parliamentary election support.
The elections were good news for those concerned about the environment and the climate. Both the Left Alliance and the Greens can be read as strict environmental parties. The only party clearly pushing the brakes on environmental issues, namely Perussuomalaiset (PS), lost the election.
The elections will hardly have an impact on opposition politics, as the Sdp is still the clear favorite in the parliamentary election polls.
The result will not help the left-wing alliance in the parliament except mentally. The wild election result may be a short-lived joy for the party, because it will no longer have Andersson to help it in next spring’s municipal and regional elections.
To the government European elections, on the other hand, will surely cause problems.
It was estimated in advance that there would be problems if the chairman of the Rkp Anna-Maja Henriksson cannot enter the European Parliament. This did not happen now, but Henriksson is going to parliament.
However, it will only temporarily ease the weak state of Rkp. The party’s support has suffered in the government.
Basic Finns it was thought that it would get even the third place, but the party fell far short of this. When 98.8 percent of the votes had been counted, the support of basic Finns seemed to drop by 6.2 percentage points to 7.6 percent. It is the worst achievement of the party in ages.
It is of greater importance to Finnish politics than the giant bang of the left-wing coalition.
The situation of basic Finns is really difficult, because the European election result only confirmed the party’s downward slide that has been going on for months, and it is not easy to raise support from the government once it has started to decline. Especially not in a government that has nothing nice to share with the people.
In HS’s most recent survey measuring parliamentary support, the support of basic Finns has already shrunk by almost five percentage points per year.
The European elections were a good opportunity for basic Finns to bring to the fore their most important attraction factor, i.e. anti-immigration.
It is difficult from the point of view of the party’s support, because there is no wave of refugees going on in Finland.
There are always enough refugees in Europe. Chairman Riikka Purra talked about immigration throughout the campaign.
That didn’t help this time either.
For the Congress elections meant the continuation of hegemony. It was the clear winner of the election, and Chairman Orpo’s position only strengthened.
The party should enjoy the victory, because the joy may be short-lived. It would be a miracle if the collapse of the support of basic Finns did not over time make it difficult to keep the government afloat. Difficulties will appear next spring at the latest during the municipal and regional elections.
Bite has shown himself as the government’s number one hawk, who doesn’t even care about criticism. He has been jokingly waving scissors while the government has cut subsidies for the poor.
The scissors may remain hidden in the future and the pension cut speeches not held.
There have already been some signs of nervousness in the party’s parliamentary group, and the European election result can really make the party hesitate to cut decisions.
Purra is in a difficult place. Immigration will not save him, because at least there is no visible immigration problem.
If he starts to reverse surgical decisions, it means difficulties in the government. Basic Finns may also not like it if Purra packs up. That would seem like a weakness. His means of raising support are few.
As recently as last autumn, it seemed that the responsibility of the government did not affect the basic Finns of Purra in the same way as it did Timo Soinin to basic Finns. However, history seems to repeat itself.
Read more: The Coalition and the Left Alliance won the elections, the Basic Finns collapsed – Follow here the most exciting twists and turns of the election night
Read more: “I’m just in shock” – Li Andersson, who collected more than 246,000 votes, broke Finland’s all-time vote record by far
Read more: Henriksson has done a gut punch once, and there was no repeat tonight: “Even the media can be wrong sometimes”
Correction on June 9, 2024 at 10:52 p.m.: The number of MEPs in the Left Alliance will increase from one to three, not two, as was said earlier in the story.
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