Germans and French are reluctant to allow Ukraine to join the EU

Ukraine’s entry into the European Union will have to overcome many obstacles before it becomes a reality, and one of them will be winning over public opinion in the member states. Far from being unanimous, the idea divides Europeans. Germans, Bulgarians, Czechs and French are the most reluctant, according to a survey by the European Centre for Foreign Relations (ECFR) conducted in 15 countries. In these four countries, the number of respondents who think it is a “bad idea” outnumbers those who think it is a “good” idea: 54% in Germany are suspicious of it compared to 31% who are not; 40% in France compared to 36%. In Spain (51%) or Portugal (59%), however, the situation is reversed: many more people view Ukraine’s candidacy positively, more than half in both cases, compared to those who think that integration would be negative.

One of the big issues in the legislature that is about to begin will be the next enlargement of the EU and how the Twenty-Seven prepare to receive those who are on the doorstep. Of course, the big country that is the candidate is Ukraine. So is Turkey, but this candidacy has become something merely formal without any expectation of future entry. Faced with this situation, the ECFR has taken advantage of a survey in which it asks almost 15,000 people in 15 countries, a dozen of them in the EU, whether they think that the entry of the attacked country is a “good idea” or a “bad idea”.

The analysis, led by Bulgarian researcher Ivan Krastev, president of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, and Mark Leonard, co-founder and director of the ECFR, shows the disparity of public opinion within the Union. There are more countries with a majority of citizens who have a positive view of Ukraine’s entry into the EU: Portugal (59%), Estonia (58%), Sweden (53%), Spain (51%) and Poland (48%). But in the group of public opinions where sceptical positions are in the majority, France is in line, with 40% of people considering it a “bad idea” versus 36% who believe otherwise, and, above all, Germany, where the number of people who are reluctant reaches 54%. These countries are the largest in the EU and those that will have a more decisive role in the Council when the moment of truth arrives in this matter.

The survey also asks Ukrainians how they would view joining both the EU and NATO. Two-thirds of respondents say that both steps are crucial for the country’s future.

There is much greater unanimity in European public opinion in its opposition to sending troops to fight in Ukraine. In all the countries where the question was asked, the opposition rate exceeds 50%. It is especially overwhelming in Bulgaria, where it is around 90%. The opposition rate is also very strong in Greece, Italy, Germany and Switzerland, but less so in Sweden or Estonia.

It is striking what is happening in Portugal and Spain. In both countries, the refusal to send troops is well over 50%, and yet there is a significant percentage of people willing to take that step when these numbers are compared with those of other countries: 19% and 17%, respectively, both percentages similar to those of the United Kingdom, a country with a longer tradition of sending its soldiers to fight abroad. These numbers far exceed those of Greece (4%), Bulgaria (5%) and Italy (7%).

This predisposition, however, does not translate into greater understanding of an increase in public spending on defence if this implies cuts in expenditure items such as health, education or public safety. Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal – countries that have been badly affected by the adjustments in the financial crisis, three of which have even been bailed out – do not have public opinions that are in favour of these sacrifices. Italians, for example, reject increasing this expenditure item by 63% compared to 9% who support it; in Spain, the figures are 51% and 20%, respectively.

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