French elections | A lot will happen before the second round, says the researcher – “The national coalition is the only possible winner”

French The National Alliance, which did well in the first round of the elections, is supported in almost the entire country, with the exception of Paris.

For example, in the wealthy South of France, the National Coalition is the most supported party in numerous constituencies.

“The big story is that the National Coalition was built in the north, as if in France’s own rust belt. But now they clearly also have ownership of the matter,” describes the Academy researcher at the University of Helsinki Timo Miettinen.

A national coalition led by a parliamentary group Marine Le Penhave been very vocal about issues related to immigration, homeland security, and general liberalization, and concern about these issues is now reflected in votes for them.

In the last elections in the summer of 2022, the electoral map was strongly for the president Emmanuel Macron The yellow of the Together electoral alliance, while now it is clearly the blue of the National Alliance.

“In some areas, the strong rise of the left is also worrying. The left is pushing for tax increases in France, and part of the economic elite feels that the National Coalition is a lesser evil than the left if Macron’s support is not enough,” says Miettinen.

Tactical voting in the second round is likely, and it has even been customary in France, says Miettinen.

In a two-candidate election, the majority of people will choose the anti-National Coalition candidate, and this choice will also dominate the public debate before the second round, he believes.

“It’s just a question of whether the National Coalition will get a simple majority or not. They are the only possible winner.”

The key question in the coming days is how many and which candidates will drop out before the second round.

At least according to yesterday’s statements, the will to form a front against the National Alliance is strong, Miettinen states.

Bridge at the moment it doesn’t seem like the National Coalition will get a majority government together, but it’s still possible.

It is almost certain, however, that President Macron’s United electoral alliance will not get a majority government and the prime minister’s portfolio.

Thus, for the first time since 2002, a so-called cohabitation– a situation where the president and the prime minister represent different parties. Traditionally in France, parliamentary elections have been held shortly after presidential elections and people have voted for the president’s party.

Miettinen sees two possible governments for France.

“Political cohabitationwhere the National Coalition is the largest and starts to take a different line than Macron, would certainly lead to some kind of political stalemate, where both try to promote their own issues,” says Miettinen.

“Another scenario is that none of the blocs achieves the necessary majority, and we have to go to some kind of civil servant government model, as has often been done in Italy in the last ten years, for example Mario Draghi led by.”

Civil service board during this period, the major reforms will probably not proceed and the room for maneuver in the budget would be very small, but large complete turnarounds would not be an issue either.

According to Miettinen, a situation in which the National Alliance remains in the opposition and does not have to take political responsibility might be even more favorable for Marine Le Pen at the moment than victory, when the party’s support is on the rise.

“The opposition position has been very important for their support.”

The second round of the parliamentary elections will be held on Sunday.