03/31/2024 – 9:01
Stocks more linked to the domestic economy should gain space in the portfolios of foreign investors, who will probably return to making contributions to the Brazilian Stock Exchange as soon as the United States begins to reduce interest rates. In this first quarter, the outflow of external resources has already shown signs of being the largest since 2020, largely due to the loss of attractiveness of securities linked to commodities with uncertainties involving China and political noise surrounding Petrobras and Vale.
“The attractiveness of cyclical companies may increase as they are more sensitive to interest rates, with the cuts in the Selic, and while the commodity cycle is more complex”, says Rodrigo Moliterno, founding partner of Veedha Investimentos.
This week, Itaú BBA raised its recommendation for the consumer discretionary sector to overweight (equivalent to purchase), citing an improving trend in the domestic economy, as the bank's macro team recently revised its growth forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). ) of Brazil for 2024 from 1.8% to 2%.
In a recent report, Bank of America (BofA) says it still sees a lack of appetite for commodities among investors. The weak performance of iron ore in the year to date and the announcement of non-payment of extraordinary dividends by Petrobras are key factors, he states.
Also citing the Petrobras case, Goldman Sachs this week recommended the sale of shares in Brazilian state-owned companies due to “increased government intervention” and considering that prices are at historically higher multiples than their private counterparts.
Moliterno, from Veedha, considers that foreigners should still continue to position themselves in big names, such as Petrobras, Vale and Itaú, and not limit themselves to cyclical stocks that have low liquidity.
But in relation to other emerging countries, Brazil continues with discounted multiples and has good fundamentals – the Selic cut being one of the main ones for stimulating the economy – so that it stands out in the eyes of foreign investors as soon as the Federal Reserve (Fed, the American central bank) begin the path of monetary easing, according to Paulo Abreu, partner and manager at Mantaro Capital.
After the Fed announced its decision to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, the 20th, the chance that American interest rates will start to fall in June rose to close to 75%, according to monitoring by the CME Group.
Until last Friday, the 22nd, the outflow of external resources from B3 totaled R$ 22.19 billion in the first quarter of this year, suggesting that this will be the worst in foreign investor appetite since 2020, the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic , when there was a withdrawal of R$64.3 billion.
The movement resulted from the postponement of expectations regarding the beginning of interest cuts in the USA, but Inter Stock Exchange specialist, Matheus Amaral, states that the lack of appetite for cases from Brazil, such as companies with a strong relationship with China, adds pressure.
Caution with the second largest economy in the world spills over into Brazilian companies with a large weight on the Ibovespa, such as Vale, because iron ore, for example, lost the level of US$ 120 per ton that it had until the beginning of the month with the fears that difficulties in China's real estate sector will reduce demand for the commodity. Furthermore, the Chinese government may not be able to meet the target of growing “around” 5% in 2024.
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