Nfter the triumph, Petteri Orpo stepped out of his house early in the morning into the Turku sun to do what many parents do in the morning: drive a child to school. The newspaper “Helsingin Sanomat” met him on the snowy street. According to their report, Orpo was tired but relaxed.
He was very happy about the election victory, he said. And: Only after Easter will his party start talks about the future coalition. Then he drove away with his child.
He must forge at least a three-way alliance
Triumph gestures look different. But Finland is also different. Orpo’s “National Coalition Party” became the strongest force in the parliamentary elections on Sunday. With only 20.8 percent, but in Finland’s multi-party parliament, that’s enough to claim the office of prime minister.
In all likelihood, Orpo will soon replace Sanna Marin, Finland’s youngest head of government, who had attracted a lot of international attention. She first led the country through the pandemic and then, together with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, through the NATO accession process.
This will be completed shortly: all 30 current alliance members have now agreed to the admission of the Finns, most recently Turkey. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he was firmly convinced that Finland would officially join the alliance as the 31st member on Tuesday. “We will hoist the Finnish flag here for the first time at NATO headquarters,” he said ahead of the meeting of member states’ foreign ministers, which begins on Tuesday.
But the successfully completed security policy turn from neutrality to NATO membership did not help Marin’s red-green alliance, which consisted of five parties, to win the elections. Orpo will also have to forge a coalition. At least a three-party, probably a four-party alliance. It will probably be a centre-right alliance, probably together with the right-wing populist “grassroots Finns”, who have now become the second strongest force, and other smaller parties.
career in local politics
Unlike Marin, Orpo did not rule out a coalition before the election. During the negotiations, the “rank and file Finns” would probably have to change their attitude towards the EU and climate policy.
If the negotiations fail, Orpo is likely to talk to Marin’s Social Democrats about an alliance, and then financial policy issues should be the focus. Either way, it will probably not be an easy negotiation. But the parties in Finland are traditionally pragmatic, and an alliance will be found.
The 53-year-old Orpo is considered a tough negotiator and has political experience. The political scientist made a career in local politics before moving into parliament in 2007 and later becoming Minister of Agriculture, then Minister of the Interior and finally Minister of Finance from 2016 to 2019.
Most recently under Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, whom he had replaced as party leader of the “National Coalition Party” in a contested vote. Stubb is considered self-confident and polyglot, while Orpo is comparatively reserved.
There are no scandals in his vita, except for one – again very Finnish – little thing: In the spring of 2021 he drove too fast, on Valentine’s Day of all days, 101 kilometers per hour instead of the prescribed 80. According to the newspaper “Iltalehti”, that was a fine of 1,230 euros at the time , which Orpo of course paid for. He was negligent, he was quoted as saying at the time.
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