F1 | Red Bull: Perez at risk, in a mosaic of drivers that is a puzzle

It will be a hot summer for Sergio Perez. Last June 4, to everyone’s surprise, Red Bull announced the contract renewal with the Mexican, a two-year agreement for the 2025 and 2026 seasons. A decision that surprised both for the timing in which it was made and for the duration of the contract, considered unjustified with respect to Perez’s low bargaining power.

In addition to appearing to be a decision that went against the grain of on-track performance, the two-year deal was seen as a definitive closure for drivers hoping to aspire to a promotion, most notably Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo.

In reality, the contract signed at the beginning of June does not guarantee Perez the certainty of being alongside Verstappen next season. At the time he signed the agreement (on the eve of the Canadian Grand Prix) ‘Checo’ occupied fifth position in the overall standings, 62 points behind leader Verstappen. A clause inserted in the contract, wanted by Christian Horner and Helmut Marko, provides that if before the summer break Perez finds himself more than one hundred points behind Verstappen, Red Bull (if it wants) can rescind the agreement.

For Perez, the problem is that after four Grands Prix (the races followed starting from the Montreal weekend) his gap to Verstappen has risen to 137 points, with a partial advantage over his teammate of 11 to 86. Perez theoretically still has two races available before the summer break, but today the possibility of him being able to recover 37 points on Verstappen between Budapest and Spa seems realistically unachievable.

A Complex Mosaic and the “Builders” Problem

Of the five Red Bull drivers who rotate around the Formula 1 program, only Yuki Tsunoda today is certain of being at the start of the next world championship with a single-seater of the group. Verstappen, for political reasons or for real intentions, has not yet definitively closed the door to a sensational farewell to the team, Perez is wavering and the Ricciardo-Lawson tandem is waiting for news. As usual, the priority for Horner and Marko is to clarify who will join Verstappen, with the hope that Max respects the contract with the team without any surprise moves.

There are two scenarios, partly connected, involving Red Bull’s second single-seater. There is talk of 2025 but not only, because the summer break could anticipate some decisions. The eleven points scored in the last five races put Perez in the embarrassing situation of having a score lower not only than the top drivers, but also than Stroll and Hulkenberg. Checo’s performance is creating a significant problem for Red Bull, given that in the last five races the world champion team has lost 37 points to Mercedes and one less to McLaren.

At the halfway point of the season, Red Bull can count on a 71-point advantage over Ferrari but above all 78 over McLaren, which appears to be the real threat. In 2023, Verstappen’s points alone were enough to get their hands on the Constructors’ Championship, but the technical values ​​that are emerging this year will hardly allow them to focus only on Max. If Perez fails to guarantee the team an acceptable score in the next two races, it is likely that he could lose his seat during the summer break.

In this case, it is likely that Marko could replace Checo with Ricciardo, despite Daniel having performed less than Tsunoda on average in the first half of the season. Daniel would not be asked to perform miracles, but to regularly bring home valuable points for the team and probably in this perspective the Australian (who would return to the team where he raced for five seasons) offers a few more guarantees than his current teammate.

This scenario also includes a filming day that Racing Bull has planned for the end of July on an Italian circuit (probably Misano Adriatico) with Liam Lawson. The New Zealander will have to be ready if the team sees Ricciardo leave for Milton Kaynes.