European elections banned polls: latest rumours. The sentiments in the parties on the vote of 8-9 June
At 11.59pm on Friday 23 May the blackout for the publication of the surveys on European elections of June 8-9. But the electoral campaign is increasingly heated, as demonstrated for example by the latest clash between Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and PD secretary Elly Schlein. The parties continue to study the trends and try to understand how to direct the message to voters in the last days before the polls open on Saturday 8 June at 3pm.
In home Brothers of Italy there is now a strong belief that the dream of 30% has vanished and Meloni herself has repeatedly lowered the bar by saying that the objective is to confirm the 26% obtained in the political elections of September 2022. The impression is that the objective is within reach even if in the last few days, especially after the disgrace of the income meter with the disavowal of the prime minister’s loyalist Maurizio Leo, vice-minister of the Economy, some concerns have begun to creep in. If Fratelli d’Italia were to remain under the 26% or maybe go down to 25 it would certainly be a defeat for Meloni which would make the prime minister weaker both in Rome with her centre-right allies and on the European tables for the future balance of the executive in Brussels. In short, in the absolute majority party the aim is to confirm the political data but some fears of falling short are starting to creep in.
Remaining in the centre-right majority, in the League there is cautious optimism for three reasons: the general’s candidacy Roberto Vannacci it seems to have worked, especially in the Centre-South, and could take away some right-wing consensus from the Brothers of Italy. The second reason is plan approval Save-Home which Matteo Salvini cleverly signed up for two weeks before the vote and which concerns millions of Italians and which finds the consensus of many trade associations and which in the polls is seen as an appreciated and appreciable measure. The third reason is the imminent green light toregional autonomy differentiated, fundamental – despite the continuous criticisms of the CEI – to regain consensus in the North and in particular in Luca Zaia’s Veneto, where the Brothers of Italy had more than lapped the Carroccio in the Politicians of Italy. Not only that, the Northern League slogan ‘Less Europe, more Italy‘ seems to work (despite the complaint of plagiarism by Cateno De Luca and the Libertà List) considering the latest measures on green homes (a blow for Italy) and on electric cars. Basically, at the Lega house they ‘see’ the double digits, they are convinced, from Salvini on down, that they can improve the political data and exceed 10% by beating Forza Italia.
Exactly, Forza Italia. Antonio Tajaniconcrete and pragmatic, continues to say he is optimistic and aims for 10% as a goal but the judicial storm over the president of Liguria Giovanni Toti could in some way have a negative impact on Us Moderates who are allies of the party founded by Silvio Berlusconi so much so that in the symbol there is precisely the writing We Moderates. Not only. The competition at the center of the moderate vote, with the presence on the field of Matteo Renzi and Carlo Calenda and their two mini-coalitions, makes the race difficult for the Azzurri. The impression at Forza Italia is that in the South the result could be positive, as we saw in Abruzzo and Molise, but in the North there could be difficulties.
In home Democratic party cautious optimism reigns. Nobody imagines becoming the leading party in Italy and overtaking FdI, but that fear of a few weeks ago of remaining under 20% or even around 19 seems to have vanished. Schlein and his loyalists are convinced with the battles on reforms (autonomy and premiership) and above all on economic issues (wages and healthcare) that they have found the key point to be able to consolidate a result satisfying, higher than that of Policies and with the number two in front. Even if there remain contradictions for some external candidates that many historic Dem big names did not like.
In the 5 Star Movement there is great optimism for the result in the South, where Giuseppe Conte is even aiming in some cases at overtaking the Democratic Party. But the problem is that – they say – in the North the situation is more complicated. Let’s say from Tuscany upwards. Where issues such as the defense of the old citizen’s income certainly do not make inroads with the electorate. THE 5 stars then they could also pay for the defense of the Superbonus because if on the one hand it is true that for some it was a very useful measure, on the other the message has been conveyed that the cuts and the failure to reduce the tax burden for many citizens (or in any case a cut of the taxes not very incisive) was actually caused by the “damages”, as he says Giorgetti, of the Superbonus so dear to the Five Star Movement. Let’s say that at M5S they would be satisfied with 15% even if the fear is that in the end the percentage could be lower.
On the smaller lists, Green Left Alliance it is sure to exceed 4%, the threshold for electing members of the European Parliament. Not so much for Ilaria Salis’s candidacy but as the only real force on the left of the Democratic Party. Renzi is also optimistic with his people United States of Europethanks to Emma Bonino and PiùEuropa, a few more fears for Carlo Calenda which however is said to be certain of reaching 5% (at least in television interviews). There De Luca’s Freedom List it’s a bit of an unknown, it could make a splash and be the real surprise but it could also remain below 4%. And in any case 2.5-3% would be a good starting point to build an anti-system alternative federated throughout Italy with many acronyms and many movements.
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