Researchers state that floods were twice as likely to occur because of climate change; El Niño and infrastructure failures are also cited
A study of the Imperial College London, in the United Kingdom, released this Monday (June 3, 2024) showed that the rains in Rio Grande do Sul were intensified by climate change. Researchers also pointed to the El Niño phenomenon and infrastructure failures as culprits for the floods that have hit the state since the beginning of May.
Researchers from Brazil, the United Kingdom, Sweden, the Netherlands and the United States reported that global warming caused accumulated precipitation in the period to increase between 6% and 9%. Here’s the complete of the study – in English (18 MB).
“The main result of the study was that climate change doubled the chance of events like this in May 2024 in Rio Grande do Sul”said oceanographer Regina Rodrigues, from UFSC (Federal University of Santa Catarina), one of the authors of the analysis, Fapesp (São Paulo State Research Support Foundation).
El Niño has been identified as a phenomenon present in most of the previous heavy rain events that have occurred in the area in recent years. The warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean made rainfall in the State between 3% and 10% more intense and increased the chance of this extreme event occurring by two to 5 times.
The researchers state that those most affected are the poorest – residing in informal settlements, indigenous villages and quilombola communities.
The heavy rains that fell on Rio Grande do Sul last month caused the worst disaster in the state’s history. In total, 2.3 million people and 475 of the 497 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul have been affected so far. There are 172 confirmed deaths and 806 injured, in addition to 42 missing. The information is from the last report card published by Civil defenseat 9am this Monday.
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The authors also cite the reduction in investment and maintenance of the Porto Alegre flood system. The anti-flood system was built to withstand a level of 6 meters of water, but began to fail at 4.5 m of flooding.
“This, in addition to the extreme nature of this event, contributed to the significant impacts of the floods and points to the need to objectively assess the risk and strengthen flood infrastructure to be resilient to this and future, even more extreme floods.”states the study.
The research also showed that laws protecting against construction on waterways are not applied as they should, “leading to the encroachment of flood-prone lands and therefore increasing the exposure of people and infrastructure to flood risks.”
Finally, the document points to improving risk communication as an important means of alerting and encouraging the population to make appropriate decisions when faced with the possibility of tragedies.
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