Press
China is on Russia's side in the Ukraine war. Ukrainian analyst Maksym Skrypchenko believes: Beijing is slowly changing its attitude towards the Kremlin.
During the night there was an air alarm, rockets landed and drones were intercepted. “But overall the situation is under control,” says Maksym Skrypchenko dryly. Skrypchenko is president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, a Ukrainian think tank based in Kyiv. Most recently, he has focused intensively on China's role in the Ukraine war busy. “Europe should make it clear to the Chinese: If you continue to stick with Russia, we will trade less with you,” says Skrypchenko in an interview.
Mr. Skrypchenko, the German Chancellor recently urged the Chinese leadership in Beijing to “influence Russia so that Putin can finally stop his crazy campaign.” Isn't it naive to think that China would abandon its pro-Russian stance after more than two years of war?
Ukrainian diplomats are currently pursuing several strategies. One of them is to urge our Western allies in various countries to provide greater support for Ukraine. For example, the Japanese Prime Minister fought in Washington for the aid package for Ukraine. But I think it is just as important that Western politicians fly to Beijing and try to talk to Xi Jinping.
What message should they give Xi?
Russia is betting that the West will become war-weary and that support for Ukraine will wane. Wladimir Putin believes it can win the war because it has greater resources and powerful partners like China. It is therefore very important to convince China that the West will stand by Ukraine for a long time.
Does China actually listen to the Europeans, or is it not pursuing its own agenda?
In the long run, these discussions will influence Xi Jinping's position on Russia and Ukraine. He listens to European leaders because he wants to do business with Europe. Europe should make it clear to the Chinese: If you continue to stick with Russia, we will trade less with you.
“At the moment, China is benefiting greatly from trade with Russia”
China is still the most important trading partner for Germany.
Yes, and you can use that. China is very focused on its economy, so this is a card that Germany should play.
At the same time, China benefits from a weak Russia – for example by sourcing cheap oil and gas from there.
That's right, at the moment China is benefiting greatly from trade with Russia. That's why more sanctions are needed against Chinese companies and banks that trade with Russia. Then the costs for China would skyrocket. In addition, Europe is much more important as a market for China than Russia, and not just now. This will continue to be the case in the future, and China knows it.
Does Russia know this too?
Russia always presents China as a close partner. But what Russia definitely does not want is to become part of the Chinese sphere of influence. Russia wants to be a leading global power and not a puppet of the Chinese. The Russians actually believe they can use the Chinese for their own purposes. But that is a fallacy.
So far, China has not even called for a withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories in Ukraine. In addition, Chinese companies continue to sell goods to Russia that can be used for military purposes.
Yes, Chinese companies sell microchips to Russia, for example, but other countries do that too. So China thinks: Why should we stop? In addition, China does not want Russia to lose the war badly. Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, a huge army, it is an ally for China against what is perceived as Western imperialism. But China doesn't want a military victory for the Russians either.
“At the beginning of the war, China was convinced that Ukraine would fall very quickly”
Are you already seeing signs that China is changing its position towards Russia?
Yes, there are signs that China is starting to get cold feet. At the beginning of the war, China was convinced that Ukraine would fall very quickly. But that didn't happen. Instead, more and more sanctions were imposed against Russia. In addition, NATO countries' military spending is constantly growing, more and more weapons are being produced, and entire armed forces are being modernized. China is very worried about this. And that, I believe, is why Beijing sent its special envoy Li Hui to Kiev and Moscow to negotiate peace. China does not believe that either side can still win the war.
What other signs are there?
Since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his peace plan (in November 2022, editor), China no longer supported a single Russian peace plan. Beijing has simply presented its own plan, which Kiev cautiously says would work but still requires some changes. Beijing also did not reject Ukraine's invitation to take part in a peace summit in Switzerland in June.
However, Beijing is making it a condition that Russia also takes part. The West rejects this.
That's correct. But the Chinese no longer reject Ukrainian advances, unlike two years ago. This is crucial for me.
What would a solution to the conflict look like from the Chinese perspective?
China wants peace at any price, immediately. Even if that would mean freezing the war.
Ukraine would hardly accept that.
That's correct. Beijing's ultimate goal is a return to normal relations with the West. When Li Hui was in Kiev and Poland, government officials who attended meetings with him told me that he had one main message: Guys, why don't you just sign a ceasefire so we can do good business again?
#China #slowly #cold #feet