Brazil | A trial for abuse of power could end Bolsonaro’s political career

of Brazil previous president Jair Bolsonaro will probably find out in the next few days whether he will be sentenced for abuse of power.

If Bolsonaro, 68, is found guilty, the likely punishment is an eight-year ban from office. It could effectively end the political career of Brazil’s right-wing figurehead, barring him from running in the next two presidential elections.

The seven judges of Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) will begin deliberating on their decision this Thursday. If necessary, they will continue on Tuesday and Thursday next week.

The verdict does not require a unanimous decision, but only the support of the majority.

However, the decision may drag on until September, as the court is about to take a recess.

The election authority of the Federal Prosecutor’s Office has announced that it supports condemning Bolsonaro to a ban from office. Information from O Globo newspaper by Bolsonaro’s camp also expects the judges to end up overwhelmingly in favor of this position.

“The prognosis is not good,” Bolsonaro admitted last Saturday.

Charge is built around a specific case.

A few months before last October’s elections, Bolsonaro summoned dozens of foreign ambassadors and other diplomats. In front of them, he made baseless claims about the vulnerabilities of Brazil’s electronic voting system and also questioned the actual result of the 2018 elections, even though he was then elected president.

The speech was broadcast on Brazilian state television. According to the indictment, Bolsonaro thus used his position as president to undermine the people’s trust in the elections without any real grounds.

The electronic voting system has been in use in Brazil since 1996 without any indication of significant problems.

Bolsonaro launched his election fraud claims for years, and the message sank in with his voters. When he lost last October’s presidential election while aiming for another term Luiz Inácio to Lula da Silvalarge groups of his supporters camped at the gates of the country’s barracks to demand the intervention of the armed forces to prevent the transfer of power.

A week after Lula’s ascension to power, on January 8, Bolsonaro’s supporters took over the presidential palace, the Congress House and the Supreme Court in the power center of Brasília, the capital.

Bolsonaro’s the defense filed its response to the indictment already in April. It appealed to the CNN Brasil news channel by among other things, that it was an occasion of the presidential administration and not election campaigning.

According to the defense, Bolsonaro is not against Brazil’s electoral system, but he had the right to express his concerns about its vulnerabilities.

The defense also claimed that Bolsonaro’s opponents have harnessed the judiciary to curb democratic debate.

The charge is based on a complaint made by Lula’s Labor Party last August. Of the seven judges considering the sentence, five also sit on the federal supreme court, where three of them were appointed by Lula during his previous presidential terms (2003–2010).

Chief Judge of the Electoral Court Alexandre De Moraes has used great power since last year, among other things, by launching investigations into Bolsonaro’s actions, with which he has also begun to be seen as his political opponent.

Bolsonaro pending other charges in the election court, which may lead to suspension from office. In addition, according to the news agency AFP, four separate criminal charges have been brought against him, which can even lead to a prison sentence.

The Federal Supreme Court is considering, among other things, the charge of planning and incitement in connection with the takeover of the administrative buildings in Brasília in January.

With this wound, Bolsonaro is still considered the most likely counter-candidate to Lula in the 2026 elections. It is quite possible that Bolsonaro would win over Lula, because the division of the people is extremely deep and even.

Last October’s presidential election was Brazil’s tightest since the fall of the military dictatorship in 1985. Lula beat Bolsonaro by 50.9 to 49.1 percentage points.