Poder360 previews what will be highlighted in the week from July 5 to August 9, 2024
The digital newspaper Poder360 brings this Monday (5.Aug.2024) a selection of the subjects that should mark the agenda of power and politics this week.
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TENSION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND VENEZUELA
Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Venezuela are the main issues on the horizon. As a result, the current scenario indicates that things will get worse before they get better. Therefore, the next few days will be crucial for calculating global risks in both cases.
In Brazil, these two situations, added to the government’s fiscal leniency Lulashould continue to put pressure on the dollar. On Thursday (August 1st), the US currency closed at R$5.73, the highest value since December 2021.
The regime of Nicolas Maduro must increase the repression of the opposition after refusing to present the electronic ballot papers that would prove that he won the elections, as the government reported.
There are signs of fraud on Maduro’s part. The ballot papers are a demand from both the opposition and countries that have not yet taken a position on the result, including Brazil. Theoretically, they would show the voter record and dispel doubts about the fairness of the election.
The tension is becoming more serious because the opposition is showing no signs of wanting to leave the streets. “blood bath” suggested by Maduro can become reality. The next few days will be decisive.
Lula made recognition of the result conditional on the presentation of the bulletins. But his international advisor, Celso Amorim, rehearsed a new speech. He said that, so far, the opposition had not demonstrated that the results were wrong.
This is a reversal of responsibilities. It is the CNE (National Electoral Council) that has this prerogative. The organization did not fulfill its obligation. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether Lula will adapt his speech, like Amorim, and accept the result without the previous conditions.
HAMAS LEADER KILLED
Tension is rising in the Middle East. Last week, Israel killed the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyehin a bold action in Tehran, Iran. On the day of the inauguration of the new Iranian president Masoud PezeshkianIsmail was killed in his room. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Prometheus revenge.
There are a number of speculations. The main one is a joint attack by groups allied with the theocratic regime. Iran, Hezbollah (Lebanon), Houthis (Yemen), Hamas (Gaza) and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria would attack the Jewish country.
So it would almost be a rerun of April, when Iran launched 400 projectiles fired at Israel after an attack attributed to the Israelis on a building adjacent to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. But only 1 hit its target on that occasion.
In his statements, the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also raised the tone. In attack In April, Israel did not send missiles to retaliate. Now, the prime minister has hinted that, if the action is repeated, the response will be immediate.
In addition to the human tragedy, a situation of this nature tends to have a strong impact on the price of oil. Almost ⅓ of the global commodity passes through the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula.
LULA IN CHILE
Lula begins the week in Chile. He will meet with President Gabriel Boric on Monday (5 August). The PT member is expected to return to Brazil on Tuesday (6 August). He will have spent 79 days abroad since taking office for his third term.
ECONOMY
On Friday (9th August) the IBGE releases the IPCA for July, the country’s official inflation index. However, market analysts expect an increase of up to 0.36%. If confirmed, it will be bad news for the government. In July 2023, went up 0.12%.
Already on Tuesday (6th August), the central bank publishes the minutes of the meeting of the Copom held on July 30th and 31st which kept Selic at 10.50% per year.
However, harsh messages are expected regarding the government’s fiscal policy. Although revenue has hit new record in the 1st semester, the gross debt went up at 77.8% of GDP, the highest level since November 2021. Spending has been increasing more rapidly.
With these factors, combined with inflationary pressure, it will not be surprising if there is some indication of a rise in interest rates in the future. A drop in the US rate was expected in the week that ends, which, however, Did not happen. And Japan, for example, increased short-term interest rates to 0.25% after 8 years in the negative.
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