SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Soybean exports from Brazil could reach a new record of 88 million tons in 2022, considering the prospect of a historic high for the harvest of the largest global producer and exporter of oilseed in 2021/22, estimated on Wednesday. the Rabobank fair.
The bank also added that, in the case of a “significant improvement” in crushing margins in China (the world’s largest importer), Brazilian soy exports could be even greater, totaling more than 90 million tons.
The projection indicates a continuity of market strength seen this year. From January to November, exports of the Brazilian oilseed are estimated at an annual record, with one month to go before the end of 2021.
According to data released by the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec) on Tuesday, soybean exports from Brazil accumulated in the year until the end of November should reach 84.5 million tonnes.
Rabobank’s estimates are based on the expectation of a new record crop in 2021/22, which planting is under development. The bank maintained its harvest forecast at 142 million tons for the oilseed.
“With the high prices of soybeans on the international market and the significant devaluation of the exchange rate, prices remain at high levels for the producer for this next cycle,” said Rabobank, pointing out that this should lead producers to sow a historic area of 40 million hectares.
Soy crushing in Brazil is also expected to have a new record of 47.5 million tons next year, 1 million more than the volume processed in 2021.
“Amidst this scenario of increased availability of soybeans available in Brazil and a slight increase in demand, a replenishment of soybean stocks in the Brazilian market is expected at the end of the 2021/22 harvest”, he pointed out.
In a presentation, the bank also said that, in the event of confirmation of the increase in the mandatory mixture to 13-14% of biodiesel in diesel in 2022, the crushing of soybeans in Brazil could exceed 48 million tons.
CORN
The institution also projected the total corn production of Brazil 2021/22 at 116 million tons, with a 5% increase in the total planted area, to 20.8 million hectares.
The gain in area comes amid the strong rise in the international market, in line with the exchange rate devaluation and the restriction of the supply of corn in the country in 2021.
With an expected improvement in supply in 2022, the bank estimates that the volume exported will reach 37 million tons of corn, 20 million more than the total in 2021.
(By Roberto Machel)
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