Devastating wildfires continued to burn in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, expanding mandatory evacuations and school closures across the region. This week promises little chance of relief; Conditions will remain favorable for both the growth of existing wildfires and the emergence of new fires, as gusty winds persist amid unusually dry conditions.
As of Friday morning, authorities had reported five big fires in the Los Angeles area. He palisades firein Pacific Palisades and Malibu, has consumed more than 20,000 hectares, while the Eaton firein Altadena, has surpassed 10,000 acres. At least 10,000 structures are believed to have been destroyed in Los Angeles, and 10 people have lost their lives.
A fire-friendly climate requires dry vegetation, low humidity, and strong winds. The combination of these ingredients allows the fire to ignite easily and spread quickly; It was this dangerous mix that allowed the Palisades Fire and the Eaton Fire to expand beyond any team’s ability to control them early last week.
Since then, fire crews have managed to begin to control the fires, helped by reinforcements from out of state, replenishing water in hydrants and reducing wind speeds. (In addition to contributing to the rapid spread of the fires, strong seasonal Santa Ana winds earlier in the week at times prevented firefighting aircraft from working to control the flames with water and fire-retardant chemicals.) The bad news is that those winds may be about to pick up again, and that on all other fronts, conditions don’t appear to be in firefighters’ favor anytime soon.
What will happen now with time
He Storm Prediction Centerthe National Weather Service agency responsible for issuing fire weather outlooks, indicates that the risk of fire conditions remained elevated in Los Angeles this past weekend.
We could see a more moderate Santa Ana wind event on Tuesday. These gusts could encourage the spread of existing fires and the ignition of new flames.
A Santa Ana wind phenomenon occurs when there is a pressure difference between the Great Basin, the vast expanse of land in Nevada and Utah, and the coastal communities around Los Angeles.
Meteorologists often use the difference in atmospheric pressure between Las Vegas and Los Angeles to predict these winds. A greater pressure difference creates stronger winds that rush toward the coast, fueling existing wildfires. This is what they predict we could see again in the coming days.
Vegetation will also remain exceptionally dry across the region. It’s the middle of the rainy season in Southern California, but the rain is nowhere to be found. After recording the third wettest February in history, Los Angeles International Airport has only recorded 0.03 inches of rain since the beginning of last summer.
The Girl Came
Even though mid-January is the prime time for rainy season in Los Angeles, there is very little hope for significant rain over the next week and a half. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday that we have officially entered La Niñaa pattern of colder than normal water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean around the equator. Atmospheric changes caused by La Niña can force the jet stream to move northward over the eastern Pacific Ocean, diverting storms toward the west coast of Canada instead of the western United States, depriving rain in states like California.
Just in time, the predominant storm track across the Pacific Ocean will remain near the Gulf of Alaska through mid-January, offering little opportunity for rain to reach Southern California.
Forecasters expect La Niña to remain weak through the end of winter, with a good chance the pattern will fade in time for spring. Unfortunately, this timing could coincide with the start of the dry season in Southern California.
This is not to say that there will not be opportunities for rain in the coming months. However, the lack or absence of rain at least until mid-January will keep vegetation exceptionally dry throughout the region. The risk of new fires starting will depend on episodes of low humidity with gusty winds, and any additional Santa Ana winds could prove dangerous in the coming weeks.
Article originally published in WIRED. Adapted by Mauricio Serfatty Godoy.
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