Although the European stock markets in general, and the Ibex 35 in particular, have managed to start 2025 on the right foot, the increases have not been enough for the benchmark indices in Europe and the US to beat the first resistance levels. those who confront and limit their progress and the conquest of more ambitious heights.
“In the short term there may be ups and downs, but there will be no news that points to greater strength as long as the Ibex 35 does not exceed the resistance zone of the 12,000-12,150 points“, comments Joan Cabrero, technical analyst and strategist of ecotrader.
The supports to be monitored are located in the 11,150-11,300 points in the Ibex 35 and, especially, the 39,300 points of the Ibex with Dividends, whose transfer would imply facing a fall of 10%, with a target of the August lows in the 10,300 points. “Only at that level would I once again consider the purchase of the Spanish stock market attractive with a medium-term orientation,” says the expert.
What technical implications does it have for Europe to remain below its bearish guideline?
The European stock market has not yet been able to overcome the resistance it faces at the beginning of 2025. In fact, the EuroStoxx 50 is still immersed in a consolidation that “I have not tired of repeating that I see as a simple pause prior to a bullish continuity that could lead the main reference to seek initial objectives in the 5,500 pointsa level that coincides with the historical highs reached during the dotcom bubble of the year 2000,” explains Cabrero, who assures that in a more ambitious scenario, a target of 5,800 points could be set, projecting the extent of the current consolidation.
We will find the clues that would point towards the beginning of this new bullish segment as soon as the EuroStoxx 50 hits that bearish trend that runs through the 5,050 points and it would be confirmed if it exceeds the first relative resistances, which appear in the 5,125 points.
“From an operational point of view, I continue to insist that there is no reason to reduce exposure to the European stock market as long as the EuroStoxx 50 does not lose its 4,688 pointscorresponding to the minimums of last November. To buy I would wait for approaches to those minimums or for it to overcome indicated resistances“, says Cabrero.
Pending deflation in Asia
In Asia, the fear of deflation in China has added a new risk factor that today becomes even more relevant with the publication of CPI data in the Eastern countrywhich confirm the downward path of consumer prices.
“The economy appears to be close to a major debt deflation trap as their housing market collapses, impacting local governments and the banking system,” explains David Page, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at AXA IM. “Their housing market crisis will continue despite recent stimulus and this is weighing down consumer spending, since real estate represents the largest source of household investment, and fiscal stimulus and credit creation“.
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