The latest polls for the state election in Brandenburg show a new trend: the AfD’s lead is shrinking. Can the SPD even win?
Potsdam – Who will win the Brandenburg election in 2024? This question is completely open. The latest polls before the state election on September 22nd indicate a close race between the AfD and the SPD. For the second time after Thuringia, the AfD, which is classified by the Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a suspected right-wing extremist case, could become the strongest force in a state election.
AfD leads in latest polls and forecasts for the 2024 Brandenburg election
The latest polls for the state election in Brandenburg predict an exciting duel. The AfD still has the best chances. However, the SPD has been able to catch up in recent weeks. The CDU is far behind in third place. And the Sahra Wagenknecht coalition? The BSW can also hope for double-digit figures in Brandenburg.
All other parties have to fear for their return to the state parliament. Greens, left and Free Voters are all below the five percent mark in the latest polls. However, a direct mandate is enough to be represented in parliament again. Things are looking even worse for the FDP. In some of the latest polls, it is no longer listed individually.
The following table shows exactly what the figures from the latest surveys look like. The data from the opinion research institutes Insa (September 17) and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (September 19) are listed:
AfD | 28 | 28 |
SPD | 25 | 27 |
CDU | 16 | 14 |
BSW | 14 | 13 |
Green | 4 | 4.5 |
BVB/FC | 4 | 3.5 |
left | 3 | 4 |
FDP | 2 | – |
Other | 4 | 6 |
Who will win the 2024 Brandenburg election – AfD or SPD? Latest polls suggest a close race
It is unclear what coalition options will arise after the election: it may not be enough to continue the current government coalition of the SPD, CDU and Greens. Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke has not yet commented on the subject of “desired coalitions” – he is initially relying on a strong SPD. This could possibly BSW come into play when forming a government. But BSW regional leader and leading candidate Robert Crumbach does not want to be part of the government at any price. “You can also be very effective as an opposition,” he says.
If the AfD were to become the strongest force, it would probably not be able to govern: no other party wants to work with it. The path to forming a government could be difficult due to the expected results of the Brandenburg election in 2024. so it will be extremely rocky.
Can the SPD still overtake the AfD? Latest polls for the 2024 Brandenburg election are unclear
SPD Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke is putting everything on one card: if the AfD wins, he will step down. “Then I’m gone,” he says. Woidke only wants to remain a member of the state parliament if he wins the mandate again. But he is still optimistic about the election outcome: “I am firmly convinced that we will make it,” Woidke asserts.
It should be noted that the SPD already managed to catch up with the AfD in the final meters five years ago. The latest polls for the 2024 Brandenburg election show that this could happen again this time. (cs/dpa)
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