On the eve of the Hungarian Grand Prix, Max Verstappen had been clear and direct: the Budapest round could represent the crossroads of an entire season. Even if from a purely arithmetic point of view, the Hungarian event is not decisive for the world championship, given the Dutchman’s wide advantage over his closest rivals, on the other hand the three-time world champion himself and Red Bull were looking for answers.
From the most important package of this season, everyone expected more. It is no coincidence that already after qualifying, Verstappen himself thundered, underlining that the innovations brought by the team were not enough to repel a McLaren that is no longer on the rise, but has become the reference.
While it is true that Budapest was a track more favourable to the characteristics of an excellent MCL38 than to the RB20, on the other hand it is undeniable that the Dutchman had much higher hopes than the verdict of the track, especially considering that the package had been brought forward compared to its post-summer break debut precisely to try to respond to the Woking team.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB20, Lando Norris, McLaren MCL38, Oscar Piastri, McLaren MCL38, three enter at the first corner.
Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images
However, if in qualifying some elements allowed to contain the gap, in the race the gap opened slightly, both for technical and strategic reasons. First of all, the fact of not being able to overtake at least one of the two McLarens at the start, as instead hoped for at Red Bull, had an important specific weight, because it gave the British team the chance to impose its own pace freely, also covering on a tactical level.
On the other hand, it is also interesting to note the trend of the first stint, the one less influenced by external factors. After giving second place back to Lando Norris on the advice of the team for having gained an advantage by going off the track during the first lap, the two MCL38s immediately took off: in front Piastri pulled away from his teammate, while the British driver then extended the gap on the Dutchman. Although gaining second place at the start could have somewhat messed up the paper on the table, at the end of the race Verstappen himself did not go around the problem, that is, the fact that he lacked the pace to do something more: “I expected it, today it was hot and when you don’t have a good balance you can’t take care of the tyres, that’s the problem”.
At the end of the first stint, the Red Bull driver had already built up a gap of about 4 seconds from Norris and 7 and a half from the leader Piastri, suggesting that the possibility of winning the Grand Prix was now remote unless there were any particular incidents. Looking at the data from the first part of the race, an interesting aspect emerges, namely that the RB20 was unable to make the difference even in those points that in the previous two days had been its strong points, namely the medium-high speed corners.
Lando Norris, McLaren MCL38, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB20, Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W15
Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images
On Friday it was clear that, at least on a single lap, Red Bull was much closer than the stopwatch suggested, as was the fact that it made the second sector its stronghold, as was then actually seen in qualifying with smaller gaps, in the order of hundredths. On the contrary, in the race the gap widened, precisely because it was not able to make the same difference even on the long distance, in a manner similar to what had already been seen at Silverstone.
Clearly, the most logical answer to find the answer to this mystery is a consideration as simple as it is clear: McLaren managed the tyres better in the Hungarian heat, also limiting the wear of the rear axle, which generally worries the Woking team the most. Generally, during the season in those Grands Prix where the softer tyres were featured, in particular the C5, the MCL38 often struggled a little more in managing the tyres on the flying lap, and then found itself more at ease with the harder compounds. A trend already seen in other stages of the championship, but beyond this discussion, there are also other reasons.
Verstappen’s hope was that the Hungarian package would not only help improve the RB20 in terms of pure performance, but also in terms of balance. After starting the season with a car that was easier to set up, as rivals got closer, at the same time the Anglo-Austrian car became increasingly complex to manage, not only for the engineers, but also for the drivers themselves. This is one of the reasons that, beyond the rivals getting closer, also explains the difficulties encountered by Sergio Perez. While Verstappen manages to partially compensate by driving on the limit, the Mexican finds it more difficult.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB20
Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images
However, despite the updates, these balance problems have recurred over the course of this weekend: if in qualifying certain circumstances have helped, in the race, where there is greater degradation, the balance problems make it even more difficult to manage the car and reduce tire consumption. Already from the first stint, with a loaded single-seater, Verstappen has repeatedly highlighted this total lack of balance, between continuous understeer and excessive oversteer depending on the curves, taking away the confidence needed even to push in the fast curves.
A strength that has been lost, which has added to the well-known difficulties in the medium-low speed sections, where McLaren has shown great progress in the last year, working very well to improve not only the stability of the load, but also the precision and consistency of the front. While maintaining a good speed, McLaren has managed to manage the tyres better, giving the drivers a stable and very effective car, which the drivers have then exploited by imposing an excellent pace.
The rest of the race was influenced by various aspects, especially strategic ones. The choice to suffer the undercut by Lewis Hamilton was born above all from what both Helmut Marko and Chris Horner later revealed, namely the fact that Red Bull was certain that it would be easier to overtake and that the effect of the dirty air would have a lesser impact. In fact, this is precisely what pushed McLaren to anticipate the pit stop in the first stint, pushing the Milton Keynes pit wall to create that delta in terms of tyres that, in an ideal world, Red Bull thought could be the only tool to bother at least one of the two MCL38s but which, in reality, over the long distance then added another piece to the puzzle that made Verstappen nervous.
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