When the head of the Russian mercenary militia Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhinbriefly rebelled against the Kremlin a year ago, President Vladimir Putin appeared weakened and vulnerable as he had never been in a quarter-century at the helm of Russia.
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But, A year later he seems more screwed than ever at the top of power.
Wagner, a paramilitary group that played a key role in the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, rebelled on June 23, 2023 against the General Staff of the Russian regular army.
Prigozhin’s militiamen occupied a barracks in Rostov-on-Don, in southern Russia, and advanced a few hundred kilometers towards Moscow. The uprising ended, however, after a few hours, with an agreement that provided for the departure of its leader to Belarus.
But two months later, Prigozhin died in a suspicious plane crash. His group was refounded and placed under the authority of the Ministry of Defense, the same one that the rebels criticized for its corruption, incompetence and logistical slowness.
Last month, Putin dismissed several senior officials from that ministry, despite thereby echoing the demands of the mutineers. The operation, presented as a fight against corruption and not as a purge, led to several generals and a deputy minister, Timur Ivanov, being imprisoned.
“There is no one left who is disloyal to Putin,” says Nikolai Petrov, a researcher at Chatham House, a British think tank banned in Russia.
The Russian president “exercises direct and constant control over all the most important actors,” he adds. No one is given the level of autonomy that Prigozhin had, nor is a military officer capable of controlling the loyalty of the troops appointed.
The then Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, was transferred to a prestigious but much less relevant position.
Putin entrusted the ministry to a technocratic economist, Andrei Belousov. Among the latter’s deputies, the Russian president placed one of his cousins, Anna Tsiviliova, and Pavel Fradkov, son of the former prime minister and former head of the foreign intelligence services, Mikhail Fradkov.
Consolidated omnipotence: Does Putin control everything?
Moscow has now had the initiative on the Ukrainian battlefield for months, but Russia still remains bogged down in a war that it believed it could win in a few days, despite its advantage in men and weapons.
His priority is to reorganize the military and shape an effective war economy for years of confrontation with the West.
“The fact that Putin can attack the interests and incomes of senior military officials is a testament to his strength, not his weakness,” says Nigel Gould Davies, a Russia researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The fact that Putin can attack the interests and incomes of senior military officials is a testament to his strength, not his weakness.
Just before this great cleanup, the Russian president also consolidated his omnipotence with victory in the March presidential elections, with 87% of the votes.
A month earlier, his number one enemy, the opposition Alexei Navalny, died in dark conditions in a prison in the Arctic, without this sparking massive protests in the country.
“The expression of his dominance is that he can afford everything,” concludes the expert.
On the political front the opposition was eradicated within the country and, Every week, simple citizens, opponents or journalists who criticize the regime or publicly mention the atrocities of which Russia is accused in Ukraine are condemned by justice.
“With the repressive measures and prison sentences imposed on various people, a large part of the population has been intimidated,” Davies emphasizes.
But for this expert Do not confuse absence of challenge with enthusiasm.
A year ago, passers-by applauded Wagner’s troops who had taken control, without firing, of the Russian army headquarters for the invasion of Ukraine in Rostov-on-Don.
“There is no large-scale enthusiasm for Putin or the war,” estimates Davies, but “the lesson has been learned and after the Wagner rebellion it is less likely that anyone will challenge him in this way in the future,” he emphasizes.
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