After 10 hours of crossing, Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 suffered extreme turbulence on Tuesday that left one dead and dozens injured.
In a few minutes, the plane rose and fell repeatedly until it descended nearly 1,800 meters. Images of the aircraft, as well as the passengers and crew on board, show the impact of the violent shake.
Turbulence is a common phenomenon in flights. It is almost routine for the announcement indicating that you must fasten your seat belt (in addition to during takeoff and landing) comes on several times throughout the trip.
However, the turbulence that shook the flight that was heading from London to Singapore – and which is known as clear air turbulence, or in clear skies either CATfor its acronym in English- is a extremely rare phenomenon.
But what exactly are these turbulences, how are they different from the rest and why are they so dangerous?
Clear air turbulence
Most turbulence is produce in the cloudyes, where there is ascending and descending wind currentsexplains Simon King, from the BBC Climate Service, and former member of the United Kingdom Royal Air Force.
These are usually relatively mild, although in larger clouds air movements can be more chaotic and generate moderate or even severe turbulence.
The difference from clear air turbulence is that They occur in clear, clear skies, and therefore cannot be seen in advance.
This type of turbulence occurs around the jet streama “river” of fast-flowing air typically found at an altitude of between about 12,000 meters and 18,000 meters, notes aviation academic and commercial pilot Guy Gratton.
As Gratton explains, it is easy for there to be a speed difference of 160 km/hbetween the air in the jet stream and the surrounding air.
And that friction around the jet stream between slower and faster air is what causes this turbulence.
Early detection
Their danger lies largely in the fact that, since they cannot be seen, for the pilots they are difficult to detect.
However, says Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading, in the United Kingdom, there is a large percentage that is detectable.
“A 75% are detectable. We can accurately predict them up to 18 hours in advance,” she says.
“But it’s that 25% that we currently can’t predict that we have to focus on.”
“That is in some way the goal of my career: to eliminate that 25% and make it history, so that no aircraft will ever encounter turbulence again.”
Still, he acknowledges that It is a challenge.
“Turbulence is the most difficult problem in physics and physics itself is very difficult. “We are working very hard with research into what is really generating the turbulence and what the mechanisms of that dynamic are.”
The scientist believes that it will be achieved, but it will take time.
A future with more turbulence
Williams emphasizes that death from severe turbulence is a rare occurrence: the last one he remembers happened in 2009 and before that, in 1997.
However, he emphasizes the importance of investigating the phenomenon given that the climate change is increasing the frequency with which they are produced.
“I have been studying turbulence for the last 20 years and in the last decade we have gathered evidence that the increase in severe turbulence has grown by 55%”asserts the researcher.
“And, in the future, we could see them double or triple in some places in the world by the 2060s, due to climate change.”
Meanwhile, the recommendation for passengers is to keep their seat belts fastened throughout the flight.
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