Mexicans know each other well. When asked about how sexist the country is, 75% consider that the population is somewhat or very sexist. If you had answered otherwise, the survey would have been invalidated from the first question. That one was easy, but the devil lives in the details. Do you prefer the next president to be a man or a woman? There men already show the machismo they abjured and only 53% prefer a woman; They, however, raise that percentage to 69%, 16 points higher. In any case, the country seems to be prepared to receive its first female president in history, something that seems to be going to happen whether they want it or not, since the two blocs with a chance of winning are headed by a female candidate. And 87% of the total of those consulted by Enkoll for EL PAÍS and W Radio agree or strongly agree that this is the case. 814 home visits were made between February 24 and 28 to collect this data.
There are not many previous experiences, neither in Mexico nor almost anywhere, to base knowledge on, therefore, people are guided by their gender perceptions. And their expectations about the change that having a woman at the head of the Republic can bring are hopeful. For example, they believe that they would better attend to economic issues (71%), public security and the fight against corruption. But in these last two aspects there is a big difference by sex. In public security, women see themselves as more capable, 15 points above what they think; and on corruption they also beat them by 8 points; When asked a direct question, two-thirds trust women's honesty more. The director of Enkoll, Heidi Osuna, believes that the answers are based on the gender expectation that has been generated year after year, not so much on known cases of women in power, which are not many yet to be able to compare.
On previous occasions, for example in 2012, when López Obrador fought against Peña Nieto and the latter won, the PAN had nominated a woman, Josefina Vázquez Mota. So the country didn't seem ready for that. Osuna remembers the surveys that were carried out then and believes that the fact of being a woman harmed the brand, not so much whether it was good or bad as political. “Now women are perceived as competitive or more so than men.” Things, then, have changed. Today, when asked directly if the country is ready to give way to a woman, 63% believe it is, with slight differences between what some people answer and others. The margin with that other question in which 87% agree that a female president will probably emerge from the polls on June 2, is due to the perception that some have of themselves and others. I mean, I'm not sexist but the other is, that's why they don't see the country as prepared.
The big parties have nominated candidates and the electorate has no escape even if they looked for it. What role the female vote will then play in this electoral campaign is difficult to determine. It would be a different thing, says Osuna, if one of the two great alliances had opted for a man, there would be dissimilarities there. For those who do not want, not even in painting, to see a woman in power, the vote remains for Jorge Álvarez Máynez, but for those recalcitrants perhaps the Citizen Movement candidate does not represent as much manhood as they seek. The director of Enkoll maintains that it has not been the best decision on the part of Movimiento Ciudadano to present a man, unless the chosen one had been “very macho.” In a very sexist country, having the option of voting for a man would have tipped the balance for the orange party perhaps by a good percentage, but not for Máynez, necessarily. “Samuel García was that more macho, conservative profile, with a wife, children, church,” says Osuna. Maybe the video of Máynez with football and beer was intended to move those voters, who knows. It's just that sexist jokes end up being unprofitable these days.
So Mexico, sexist or not, will most likely have a woman at the top of power as a result of these elections. What will happen next? Her peers believe that the situation will change for the better or at least the same. 87% say so. Men raise that perception to 89%, something like saying, they gain from the change. Presumably, if you asked them, then, who has benefited from having had 100 years of male governments, they would answer: men.
Claudia Sheinbaum, for the official bloc, and Xóchitl Gálvez, for the opposition, will face each other in the three months of the campaign that follows. There citizens will have to choose one policy or another, not by sex, which is the same. For now, the messages they send are valid for both, it does not matter which of them maintains that “it is women's time.” That already seems to be a fact, what we have to do is confront ideologies and programs.
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