The new strong man in Niger is the one who started it all. After soldiers from the presidential guard cordoned off President Mohamed Bazoum’s palace on Wednesday and the country plunged into great uncertainty, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, the head of that elite unit, finally appeared on Friday afternoon. on national television. President Mohamed Bazoum has failed in his duties, Tchiani said.
The General now takes over.
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“The political rhetoric wanted you to believe that everything is going well,” Tchiani said, referring to the fight against jihadist violence that has spread to Niger from neighboring countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso. “But the hard truth is one of countless deaths, displaced persons, humiliation and frustration.” Those words sound familiar, says Nigerien political scientist Abdourahmane Idrissa, affiliated with the African Studies Center in Leiden.
In similar words, soldiers appeared on national television in Mali and Burkina Faso twice in the past three years after they seized power there. “There, too, they claimed defeat against the jihadists,” says Idrissa, who speaks by phone from Dubai. The coups in Mali and Burkina Faso have opened the door for the soldiers in Niger.
“They have seen with their neighbors how the power grabs went unpunished.”
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You mean the international community did not act?
Mali was the first. Then there were still very strict sanctions, including from ECOWAS (the regional partnership). But those sanctions didn’t last long enough. This was because Senegal and Ivory Coast themselves experienced serious economic consequences and wanted to get rid of it. As a result, the putschists are still in power there and have just implemented a new constitution.”
“We hardly see any sanctions on the Western side either, because they are afraid that people will run into the arms of the Russians. All this has created the space for the soldiers in Niger to say to themselves, ‘we can do this too’.”
It is significant, says Idrissa, that it was precisely President Bazoum at the time who pushed hardest within ECOWAS for strong sanctions against the military in Mali. Two days before he was to be sworn in as president in 2021, another coup against him was thwarted. “Bazoum knew that the danger was not over. He saw sanctions as a way to keep his own soldiers in check.”
The poor security situation in Niger was a welcome excuse?
“Look, as long as there are jihadists in our country, the situation is bad. The people who see their house go up in flames do not care that the ‘intensity’ of the violence decreases. But I think it’s more of a pretext. Maybe one that these soldiers sincerely believe in, that things might be moving forward, but not fast enough and that they think they can do better than a civilian government.”
“But it is also a rhetoric that they benefit from, that they are not carrying out this coup for themselves, but ‘to save the country’.”
It is said that the leader of the coup, General Tchiani, was about to be replaced by Bazoum. Could that have played a part?
“That’s what they say, yes. Tchiani was appointed by Bazoum’s predecessor, former president Mahamadou Issoufou. Perhaps Bazoum had wanted to replace him for a long time, but Issoufou pressured him not to. In the eyes of Nigeriens, Issoufou never really left the presidential palace and was almost like a kind of second president. Bazoum was looking for a way to break away from that.”
At first, the military seemed divided over this coup.
“There were already several coup stories circulating within the army. Tchiani must have known that too. With his discharge approaching, it may be that he decided to put Bazoum aside himself. It was easy for him, he was his bodyguard. I think the other army units were not aware of this, but ultimately saw this as an opportunity.”
Visiting the capital Niamey earlier this year, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken praised Niger as “a young democracy in a challenging part of the world that remains true to its democratic principles”. Did the West have too rosy a picture?
“No doubt. Nigeriens always laughed when the West called Niger a democracy. There have been chaotic attempts since the 1990s, with coups in between. It was not until 2000 that democracy really started to take shape, with various political parties forming coalitions and with a functioning Constitutional Court and an election organizing committee.”
“Until 2009, the then president decided to reform the constitution so that he could enforce a third term. The following year he was overthrown in a coup. Then the PNDS, the current government party, came to power. They have destroyed democracy. The Constitutional Court has lost its credibility, as has the Electoral Commission. And the opposition has been marginalized.”
“Everything is also politicized. Also the military. That is why there is a lot of anger towards the PNDS among Nigeriens. You saw that yesterday, when demonstrators looted their party office. From an Afrobarometer poll [een internationaal onderzoeksinstituut, red.] last year it emerged that Nigeriens believe that the army may intervene in the event of bad governance. That dissatisfaction can now be put to good use.”
And Bazoum, is he popular?
“Very popular. People were not happy when he was elected because they felt the elections had been fraudulent. But soon he managed to win them over. Unlike Issoufou, he was very open. He talked to the press, and in jihadist attacks he went straight to the victims. And he cut the presidential escort, a source of annoyance to people in Niamey because it paralyzes traffic.
“People saw him as different, more like a prisoner of his own party trying to break free. That is why there are also people who think that the PNDS has something to do with this.”
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With this coup, almost the entire Sahel is now ruled by the military. Do you think that democracy can return to these countries?
“I think so. But what we are seeing now in the Sahel is the result of a global trend. Countries that used to encourage democracy no longer do so because they are afraid. Take the Americans. If there was a coup in Africa in the past, all support was immediately stopped. Now they have set up an entire military structure in Niger with a huge base in the north to keep an eye on the Sahel and especially Libya. They have something to lose.”
Internationally, pressure is now being exerted on the military, including by the Americans. Do you see another scenario in which Bazoum returns as president?
“They are already so far in their power grab that I cannot imagine them taking another step back. But Bazoum is a stubborn man with principles. He believes in democracy. That’s why we haven’t seen a letter of resignation from him yet. I’m sure he thinks, ‘I’m elected, I’m not resigning’. I think it also has to do with the relations he has had with the West, he expects the West to help him.”
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