Tsnot inflation and tight coffers: according to a survey, a good two-thirds of consumers apparently want to go bargain hunting for the Black Friday discount campaign this year. This is the result of a representative survey by the management consultancy PwC among more than 2000 German citizens. The desire to buy is thus at the previous year’s level. According to the survey, buyers want to spend an average of 289 euros this year.
A flood of special offers a few weeks before Christmas: With this concept, Black Friday has become one of the most important sales days of the year in Germany in recent years. Last year, consumers spent almost 5 billion euros on Black Friday and the following Cyber Monday, according to the German Retail Association (HDE).
But in view of the high inflation and more limited funds, it is uncertain whether the campaign at the end of November will be able to build on the successes this year. Especially since many consumers fear that the offer could be less attractive this time. After all, retailers are also struggling with rising costs.
Trade association is confident
The HDE is optimistic: Based on a survey of 1,000 online shoppers about the discount days, it expects a sales record of 5.7 billion euros. That would be 22 percent more than in the previous year.
“The growth story of Black Friday and Cyber Monday will continue, even under the currently difficult conditions and despite the poor consumer mood,” says Stephan Tromp, deputy general manager of the HDE. “Many customers are now all the more eager to go bargain hunting and want to take advantage of the offers of the two days.” The discount days would now also be used to look out for Christmas presents. In total, gifts worth 1.7 billion euros could then be bought.
Not all industry insiders are so optimistic. The trade expert Gerrit Heinemann from the Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences assumes that retailers will pull out all the stops on Black Friday to save a difficult year. But he has doubts that it will succeed. “All in all, the signs are not so good that another sales record will be set this year,” says Heinemann – also because there are still difficulties in the supply chain.
Skeptics expect lower sales
Retail expert Martin Fassnacht from the WHU business school in Düsseldorf is also skeptical: “Because of the difficult economic situation, people want to keep their money together. This will also be felt on Black Friday. Sales will end up being lower than previous years.”
Nina Scharwenka from the management consultancy Simon-Kucher & Partners is also convinced: “Hopes that consumers in Germany will significantly increase their spending during the pre-Christmas campaign days and that companies will be able to compensate for weaker sales figures so far this year will probably be disappointed.”
“The interest of German consumers in Black Friday and Cyber Monday remains high,” said PwC retail expert Christian Wulff, summarizing the results of the survey. However, inflation has a significant impact on people’s shopping behavior. On the one hand, they are more reluctant to spend money. “On the other hand, they want to make conscious use of the special offers around Black Friday 2022 because they assume that the price spiral will continue.”
Offers less attractive?
Four out of five bargain hunters in the survey admitted that inflation has changed their shopping plans. 38 percent plan to only buy what they need. One in five wants to buy less than usual due to the circumstances. A similar number of bargain hunters prefer to visit cheap retailers and online shops or look specifically for inexpensive products such as private labels or used items. According to the survey, a good 40 percent of bargain hunters want to use Black Friday to buy the majority of Christmas gifts.
Around 40 percent of consumers fear that the Black Friday offers will be less attractive than in previous years. Just as many anticipate that certain products will be unavailable due to supply issues. Almost a third expect that fewer retailers will take part in the discount battle, as they too are struggling with rising costs.
According to Simon-Kucher, the bargain hunters have also prepared well this year. Around 70 percent had already observed the prices of the items they were interested in in the weeks leading up to Black Friday. This approach is actually recommended. Because a study by the price comparison portal Idealo, for which the price development of around 10,000 products from 1,000 categories was analyzed, shows: Real bargains are rare even on Black Friday. On average, the offers last year were just five percent cheaper than in the month before the campaign.
Black Friday falls on November 25th this year, Cyber Monday on November 28th. However, it has become common practice in retail to lure customers with special offers in the days and weeks before the actual deadline.
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