Observers and analysts, speaking to Sky News Arabia, believe that the United States is working to strengthen its military presence in the region by sending additional defensive weapons to the Middle East, as a “message of deterrence” to Hezbollah and Iran, not to enter the current confrontation line, and to prevent the expansion and aggravation of the area. Conflict.
Observers believe that as the war between Israel and Hamas progresses, clashes along the Lebanese-Israeli border indicate that Hezbollah does not want to engage beyond the implicit rules of conflict established with Israel after the 2006 war, at least for now.
The US Army deployed huge naval vessels in the Mediterranean Sea off the shores of Lebanon, to put pressure on Hezbollah after opening a new front for the war, if the Israeli army carried out a ground invasion in Gaza. The Pentagon also announced the sending of additional defense systems to the Middle East, led by an air defense system from THAAD and more Patriot air defense missile systems.
What do we know about the Marine attack?
- On October 23, 1983, Hezbollah carried out a suicide bombing targeting a US Marine barracks in Beirut, killing 241 American soldiers and wounding 128 others.
- On this day, a truck bomb exploded in the residential complex where American and French members of the Multinational Force in Lebanon were staying at Beirut International Airport.
- The multinational force was in Lebanon as part of an international peacekeeping effort.
- Later that day, 58 French soldiers were killed in a similar attack, and the US State Department believes that Hezbollah organized this attack.
- The US administration considered that the bombing of the US Marine Corps headquarters “was the spark that launched the war on terrorism.”
Opportunities for escalation
Haneen Ghaddar, senior researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies, believes in a recently published analysis that “Hezbollah wants to reap the fruits of the war without risking losing its strategic position in Lebanon.”
Cross-border clashes escalated, as Hezbollah fired guided missiles at Israeli military sites along the northern border, while the Israeli army responded by bombing several areas.
She said: “This calculated participation could change at any moment, and become a full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel due to miscalculations or a change in the assessments of Hezbollah or Iran.”
Ghaddar indicated that Hezbollah is adopting a strategy that has not changed, based on limited escalation along the border, distracting Israel from the chances of war in Lebanon, while maintaining a degree of denial about some operations.
Israel has fought two wars with Lebanon over the past four decades, the last of which was in 2006. Tensions have also escalated for years with Hezbollah, which the United States has classified as a “terrorist organization,” while Israeli authorities fear that a surprise Hamas attack on October 7 may encourage… Party elements to launch large-scale attacks.
Since 2006, Hezbollah’s strategy has been to maintain deterrence and enhance its regional influence, while continuing to develop a large stock of precision missiles. Of the estimated 130,000 missiles held by Hezbollah, there are a few dozen precision-guided missiles.
Ground attack position
For his part, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs Mike Mulroy linked Israel’s implementation of the ground invasion in the Gaza Strip to the possibility of Hezbollah escalating its operations against the Israeli army.
In an exclusive interview with Sky News Arabia, Mulroy said, “If the Israeli army launches a ground intervention in Gaza, with Hamas’ capabilities being greatly destroyed, there will be great pressure on Hezbollah to fully join the fight, creating another front.” .
He added: “I think Hezbollah does not want to do this, but this is likely not the only option for it or it will lose all its credibility.”
But the former American official believes that “if this happens, the chance of the United States being directly involved militarily in the region increases significantly.”
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