Asteroid 2024 YR4, with a size between 40 and 100 meters in diameter, will approach 106,200 kilometers from the Earth in December 2032. The possibility of an impact with the planet has increased up to 1.9%, according to space agencies such as the NASA and ESA. In a first analysis, the scientists determined a probability of one between 83 that a shock occurs. One month after the identification of the object, the UN activated a planetary defense protocol that has disseminated virally on social networks.
The risk levels of an asteroid are calculated according to the Turin scale, which consists of 10 levels. Level one corresponds to a very low risk, and level 10 to a safe and catastrophic impact. The United Nations Organization has risk action and mitigation plans and protocols for most levels. For now, 2024 YR4 is at level three of said parameter.
For an asteroid with three score, planetary defense strategies are limited to continuing with the observation of the racing to confirm its low impact probability. Following the recommendations of the Space Agencies, the UN has commissioned the International Asteroid Alert Network (IAWN) and the Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) the active monitoring of the asteroid over the next few years.
These two expert organizations, endorsed by the UN, must also develop a strategy to help world governments in their own analysis of asteroid impact consequences, and in the planning of damage prevention and mitigation responses. If the meteorite enters a collision route, it will be necessary to know if it will impact the sea or in a populated city.
According to the last SMPAG meeting at the end of January, the probability of impact is very low. “The conclusion is that it is too early to take action. However, we will monitor the evolution of this impact threat and the data on the size of the body,” explained the advisory group in a release.
Humanity is prepared for the possibility that a great meteorite hit the earth. The UN has an official plan that must be followed to locate, communicate and mitigate the threat.
There are other containment measures for higher risk cases that are being tested, such as kinetic impacts to the meteorite surface. These mechanisms, still in an experimental phase, suppose a “blow” with an object that deflects the meteorite route or slows it down to prevent the probable collision. At the moment, it is not the case of 2024 YR4.
The UN planetary defense protocol for an asteroid with level three is monitoring. The organizations in charge must accelerate their observations because between April and May 2025 the racing will cease to be visible. 2024 YR4 will reappear in 2028. As you approach more, it will appear in more telescopes and your risk level will be clearer.
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