US presidential election|In the prediction model of Nate Silver, considered an election guru, Trump will win with a 64 percent probability and Harris with a 36 percent probability. The NY Times poll result could be a sign that Harris’ momentum is stalling.
of the United States Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is a democrat in a fine leadership position Terrible for Harris compared to Sunday in published In a survey by The New York Times (NYT) and Siena College.
In the national poll, Trump leads Harris by an extremely narrow margin of 48 to 47 percent. The poll’s margin of error is three percent in each direction.
It is a single survey, which does not necessarily indicate a broader trend, and the result of which is unchanged compared to the NYT survey published at the end of July. Based on the average of recent polls, Harris would lead Trump by about three percentage points nationally.
NYT’s by however, the poll released on Sunday is the first credible poll in which Trump has beaten Harris in about a month. According to the newspaper, this may indicate that Harris’s “political sugar rush” and “August euphoria” are over.
Vice President Harris received a lot of positive publicity after the sitting president Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race on July 21 and endorsed Harris.
More leverage was provided by the Democrats’ party meeting on 19–22. in August, when Democrats’ doubts about Harris’ chances of winning were shaken off with charming speeches. Now, from Harris’ point of view, a couple of weeks of silence are behind us, which may have leveled the punts in Trump’s direction.
Kamala Harris hit it off with 8-year-old Charlotte Husid in North Hampton, New Hampshire last Wednesday.
Fresh the poll’s accompanying question underlines how hard pressure will be on Harris in the debate against Trump to be held next Tuesday. According to the poll, 28 percent of likely voters think they need more information about Harris.
Only 9 percent of respondents needed more information about Trump. He is already well known because he has already served one term as president (2017–2021) and he has appeared almost non-stop in the American public for years anyway.
When Americans were asked who they trusted more to handle various issues, Harris clearly or fairly clearly beat Trump on issues related to abortion and democracy. On the other hand, Trump is clearly more trusted when it comes to handling economic matters and the border situation.
The average of the polls compiled by the NYTimes in the swing states that are decisive for the election shows how extremely tight the fight between Harris and Trump is going on. Harris leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvani
a, but only by 1-2 percentage points in each.
In Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, the poll averages look like this: 48-48.
Donald Trump addressed supporters in Mosinee, Wisconsin on Saturday.
As an election guru a respected statistician by Nate Silver in the prediction model Trump now has about a 64 percent chance of winning at least 270 electoral votes, determined by state-by-state results. Harris’s probability of doing the same is 36 percent.
On August 28, Silver’s forecast model still showed the two the same probabilities, i.e. practically a coin toss situation.
Based on the current forecast updated on Sunday, Trump would get about 281 out of 538 electors and Harris 257.
On the other hand, the Fivethirtyeight.com project previously founded by Silver and left last year countsthat Harris’s probability of winning would be more than 55 percent and Trump’s more than 44 percent.
Silver has reviewed the new forecast model used by his former site, among other things, that it would give too little weight to current surveys.
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