Ukrainian and Russia’s battles are still largely stagnant and neither side of the war seems to have the resources to make decisive strategic breakthroughs in the near future. So, from the point of view of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers, another painful winter of war is ahead.
This is what is said in Helsingin Sanomat’s latest Ukraine studio, which you can watch in its entirety in the attached video.
of HS Ukraine expert of John Helin according to it, it seems obvious that Russia intends to terrorize the Ukrainians and destroy the country’s infrastructure as best they can with missiles and other munitions, which the Russians have recently used more sparingly than before.
“During the autumn, Russia has used fewer cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and long-range drones to attack Ukraine. Most likely, they have been stored for this winter campaign,” says Helin.
To some extent, the same applies to Ukraine, which has recently used fewer drones against Russia. According to Helin, it can be expected that Ukraine will also try to carry out attacks on targets on the Russian side during the winter and shape the feelings of Russian civilians to be anti-war.
People take shelter in a metro station during an air raid alert in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, on Wednesday.
Worrying from Ukraine’s point of view, both ahead of winter and in the longer term, the fact that the country’s most important armed supporter, the United States, has recently drifted into a political knot, and no decisions on new aid to Ukraine have been reached in Congress.
At the beginning of November, the House of Representatives approved a bill pushed by the Republicans, which proposed aid only to Israel. A democrat president Joe Biden requested more than 60 billion dollars in aid to Ukraine, nothing was included in the package.
The bill in question will not pass in the Senate, and the US can be expected to continue to support Ukraine. However, the bickering in Congress is a bad omen for long-term and reliable support for Ukraine.
“Europe’s ability to fully replace all the aid that is received from the United States is quite small. Getting through the big US aid packages would be practically vital for Ukraine,” says Helin.
In the process when the Western countries’ support and military production capacity to help Ukraine are in uncertain terms, Russia has generously distributed money from the state coffers to the armed forces and military industry. This year, Russia’s military spending is almost six percent compared to gross domestic product. About a third of public spending is directed to the needs of the armed forces.
According to Helin, Russia has succeeded in significantly increasing the production of, for example, artillery ammunition and missiles, and the country is rapidly modernizing its tank stock.
“With this investment, Russia is clearly preparing for a long war. Russia thinks that the third and fourth years of the war will probably be easier for it, especially if the West does not get its industry in a big gear to support Ukraine. Russia is ready to bet on winning the war one way or another.”
The thought of a third or fourth year of war is bleak. The big Russian attack started in February 2022, that is, about 20 months ago. On the other hand, Russia attacked Ukraine militarily as early as 2014, a full decade has soon passed.
Rescue workers in a residential building badly damaged by a Russian missile strike in the city of Selydove in eastern Ukraine on Wednesday.
According to Helin, it is possible that Ukraine will be forced to make some kind of concessions to Russia, unless the Western countries get their fronts and goals in relation to Ukraine straightened out. Ukraine has announced its desire to completely drive the Russians out of the country.
“Everyone in the West agrees that Ukraine must win this war. But we still don’t have a unified stated goal of what it means to win the war. If the support of the West weakens… we will inevitably drift into a situation where Ukraine cannot militarily win this war.”
Although Ukraine’s prospects are bleak in many ways, according to Helin, there is also something positive to report.
“Ukraine itself is clearly preparing for a long war. There is trust in the political leadership and trust in the armed forces. Ukrainians’ will to fight is still high. Some kind of collapse of Ukraine itself is not visible. As long as the West only supports Ukraine… this war is winnable for Ukraine, says Helin.
A wounded Ukrainian soldier was treated near Bahmut in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday.
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