NATO does not expand to the East, leaving out Ukraine and Georgia, and negotiates with Vladimir Putin to end the war with the cession of Ukrainian territories to Russia. On the agenda of Donald Trump This is the plan to end the conflict that has been going on for over 2 years. The former US president aims to return to the White House in the November 2024 elections and Joe Biden’s flop in the recent televised debate has raised the tycoon’s stock.
Trump’s second term would have significant repercussions on US foreign policy and in particular on Washington’s role in NATO, as Politico highlights. The former president has said and repeated in recent months that the war, with him in the White House, would never have begun.. His mediation, he reiterated, would allow an end to hostilities within 24 hours: words greeted with skepticism in particular by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Trump and Peace with Putin
In April, the Washington Post wrote that Trump would favor the transfer of Crimea and Donbass to Russia. An anonymous source close to the former president, however, notes that Trump “would be open” to a solution “that precludes NATO expansion and avoids a return to the 1991 borders for Ukraine.”
These options “would be on the table. But that doesn’t mean giving up any other options, including supplying Ukraine with large amounts of weapons.” The US, on the other hand, has been Kiev’s main supporter for over 2 years: in May, Congress said yes to a $61 billion mega-weapons and aid package. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has just announced a new supply of over 2.3 billion dollars which also includes additional interceptors for the air force.
The line regarding the war between Ukraine and Russia is a piece of the overall position that Trump, if elected, would adopt towards NATO and its European partners.
Trump in the White House, how is NATO changing?
If in the past the US president flirted with the possibility of leaving the Alliance, the prospect is not being considered now. However, a “radical reorientation” would be pursued, to use the words filtering out from Trump’s national security advisors.
The United States would continue to provide a nuclear umbrella over Europe, maintaining bases in Germany, England and Türkiye.with a significant deployment of air and naval forces. However, it would be up to European countries to deal directly with infantry, armored vehicles, artillery: in these areas, the US would sit in the ‘back seat’ and its contribution in the Old Continent would become truly relevant only in the event of a crisis.
Trump, as is well known, has harshly criticized countries that have not contributed sufficiently to the defense common and deemed the burden on American shoulders excessive. The candidate’s plan outlines a two-speed NATO: whoever manages to invest 2% of GDP would continue to enjoy American support and protection. According to Trump’s advisers, Politico highlights, this approach does not violate Article 5 of the Atlantic Pact, which commits the entire Alliance to defend every member attacked. NATO recently released updated figures: currently, 23 out of 31 countries reach the fateful 2% threshold. Among the nations below the bar there is also Italy.
The United States, according to data updated to 2023, spends 860 billion on defense and accounts for 68% of the expenses made by NATO countries. According to Jeremy Shapiro, director of research at the European Council on Foreign Relations, 3.5% of the American GDP is allocated to the defense of Europe. Washington spends on NATO an amount that is ten times that supported by Berlin. Any reduction in the American commitment would require a decisive step forward by Europe which, analysts interviewed by Politico note, would not be able to fill the gap in the short term.
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