Exactly one month ago, when Joe Biden, under pressure from many of his fellow partisans, announced that he was leaving the race for re-election, no one imagined that his quick replacement, assumed by the Vice President Kamala Harris would erase the half-dozen point lead that Republican Donald Trump had taken over Biden in some polls, let alone Harris taking the lead in the US presidential election.
According to the criteria of
This week, when an optimistic Democratic Convention in Chicago will proclaim the vice president as its official candidate for the White House, it is that both in the average of polls on the RCP web platform (where she wins 48.1% to 46.7%) and in the one carried by the The New York Times (where she wins 49% to 47%), Harris has assumed the lead in voting intention.
Other figures confirm this. In the survey conducted by the prestigious Siena College for the same New York newspaper, the lead is a little wider: Harris leads by three points, 49 percent of voting intentions for her against 46 percent for Trump. FiveThirtyEight, another web platform that averages polls using a refined statistical technique, places Harris at 46.4% and Trump at 43.8%.
How are Kamala Harris and Donald Trump doing in the states that will be decisive in winning the White House?
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris with President Joe Biden.
Photo:
But be careful: In the US presidential election system, the national vote is not final. Based on the statewide voting results, each of the 50 states elects its delegates to a 538-member national electoral college, which makes the final decision.
That’s why, Beyond the national trend in the polls, it is key to know how the numbers are going in more than half a dozen critical states. In them, the vote is usually tight and sometimes leans towards the Democrats and sometimes towards the Republicans, which is why they are known as the definitive ones for victory.
Trump won in all the so-called ‘swing states‘ just a month ago, and in several by wide margins. But now, in the polling averages, Harris leads in Wisconsin (49% to 47%), Michigan (49% to 47%) and Pennsylvania (49% to 48%); she ties in Arizona (47% to 47%), while Trump remains ahead in Nevada (47% to 46%), North Carolina (47% to 46%) and Georgia (49% to 46%).
If Kamala Harris gains more momentum thanks to the Democratic Convention, Trump may arrive fragile at the final stretch of the campaign
A few days ago, in Paris, political scientists and diplomats from Europe and the United States led a round table discussion behind closed doors to which EL TIEMPO had access.
The experts concluded that “although both national and global figures are ‘swing states‘They are very tight, what is notable is the change in trend: In almost all critical states except Georgia, Harris is rising and Trump is stagnant or even falling.”. With the presumed boost that the Democratic convention should give her this week, the experts add, “Trump may be in a very fragile position as he enters the final stretch of the campaign”.
This weekend, in its editorial, the Parisian daily The World This is how he defined what happened with the Democratic candidate: Harris “who had been a rather opaque vice president, metamorphosed into a candidate full of energy and communicative enthusiasm” who now “went on the offensive and has run a campaign without errors confirmed by her progress in the polls, especially among the black and Hispanic electorate that had distanced itself from Biden.”
Harris and her vice presidential running mate, former college professor and current Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, have brought optimism, joy and confidence to the campaign, attributes that contrast with the image of Trump and vice presidential running mate JD Vance, who The WorldShe defines herself as “tough and vengeful.”
Previously, Trump sold fear of immigration, the leftism of the Democrats and imports from China, while Biden sold fear of Trump.
Now, Trump continues to sell the same fear, but Harris – while continuing to scare voters with the risks that Trump implies – has begun to sell hope and illusion. And this change of tone and approach is working for her.
The bet to conquer the middle class of the United States
The Democrats’ bet is to convince the undecided.
Photo:
At 78, Trump was winning the age battle by a wide margin against Biden, 81, especially after the president’s disastrous performance in the television debate at the end of June, where he looked lost and slow in reflexes and speech.
Harris’s emergence changed that correlation. As Princeton professor Julian Zelizer explained to the BBC: “Harris neutralized the biggest problem for the Democratic nomination and turned the age issue against Trump”.
According to Maria Carolina Casado, the Democratic campaign’s Hispanic media director, the candidate has brought “her freshness, her closeness to the people and her spontaneous character,” which contrasts with the image offered by Biden, who followed a stiff script and seemed lacking in energy.
Strengthening the middle class will be one of the defining goals of my presidency, because I firmly believe that when the middle class is strong, America is strong.
But beyond these important but formal issues, Harris has launched proposals to win back sections of the middle class that the Democrats had lost.
“Strengthening the middle class will be one of the defining goals of my presidency, because I firmly believe that when the middle class is strong, America is strong,” the vice president said a few days ago at a rally in North Carolina, as she presented her economic program for the first 100 days of her administration.
Harris also proposed establishing control mechanisms for companies that artificially inflate prices, especially for basic foods and medicines. She understands that this affects the purchasing power of lower and middle class families.
An example is imposing a $35 cap on monthly spending by elderly patients who require insulin.
Harris promises that the government will provide direct aid to households that have been forced to take out bank loans to pay for expensive health treatments.
The candidate also offers significant tax breaks for first-time homebuyers, a $3,600 annual income tax refund for couples with minor children, and up to $6,000 for those with newborns.
Such proposals are intended to ease the budgetary woes of millions of households. Harris’s aim in making them is to draw a sharp contrast to her opponent’s image.
Alex Williams says that in the United States “there are people willing to protest to defend their own oppression.”
Photo:
“Trump is fighting for billionaires and big business,” the vice president said in a speech last week, “and I will fight to give tax money back to middle-class and working-class families.” This message seems so far more effective than Trump’s response, which has been to claim that “Comrade Harris is going all the way in her communism.”
Harris neutralized the biggest problem for the Democratic nomination and turned the age issue against Trump
But in the case of Harris’ proposal to eliminate taxes on tips received by those who work in hotels and restaurants, among other services, Trump’s fury had nothing to do with the vice president’s alleged communism, but with the fact that the Republican believes that she plagiarized a proposal that he himself had made.
As determined as Trump seems to be to attack every one of Harris’s economic proposals, that tactic doesn’t seem to be working for him.
A survey by the University of Michigan for the newspaper Financial Times The poll revealed that 42% of respondents believe more in her ability to manage the economy than 41% in his. It’s almost a tie, but what’s interesting is that a month ago, Biden was losing to Trump on this question by six percentage points.
Liberal but moderate: the risks of ideological ambiguity
Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz.
Photo:
From a young age, Harris was a fighter for civil rights and freedom of expression, which could place her on the left. But between 2011 and 2017, when she served as Attorney General of California, she distinguished herself with her tough positions against crime and drug abuse, to the point that she was classified as a conservative in a state that is a paradigm of liberalism.
In the end, this combination may serve to satisfy the different segments of voters who make up the Democrats’ base, ranging from the radical left to the moderate center.
The choice of Tim Walz as vice-presidential candidate completes this image of a liberal and moderate candidate. He is a former school teacher who always distinguished himself by helping young people with problems, someone who, beyond ideologies, believes in solidarity.
The vice president leads most polls by between one and three points, and already wins in three of the seven swing states.
“Tim’s trademark,” Barack and Michelle Obama, who hold him in high regard, said a few days ago, “is his ability to speak like a human being and treat everyone with decency and respect.” Trump and Vance have also accused him of being a “leftist.”
Jovial and always connected with young people despite his 60 years, Walz has responded by calling the former president and his running mate “weird” characters, a word that the new generations frequently use in their chats, posts and memes, which is why the young Democratic base has flooded the networks with this disqualifying adjective against Trump and Vance.
Harris and Walz’s approach to being both liberal and moderate is very similar to that used by Barack Obama in 2008. But while it does allow her to attract Democrats of different tendencies and thus broaden the voter base, it carries a risk: that in the decisive stages of the campaign, between the end of September and the vote on November 5, when Harris will be forced to define herself in the debates, “the perception will spread that she does not have clear ideas,” as the editorial of this Sunday said. The Country from Madrid.
For now, Harris has many reasons to be satisfied with the first month of her hasty campaign for the White House. The mere fact of having given the Democrats a chance in an election that seemed irremediably lost is already enough. But she must not forget that on the other side there is a strong and very dangerous candidate, who will take advantage of any mistake by the vice president to exact a high price, so tying him, or even slightly ahead, does not seem to be enough.
MAURICIO VARGAS LINARES – Senior Analyst – [email protected] / instagram @mvargaslinares
#Kamala #Harris #secret #weapons #beat #Donald #Trump #elections