There is a “Habsburg” solution

Always trouble with Orbán: History offers Europe a guide to resisting Hungarian blackmail.

• Viktor Orban holds the EU has been in suspense for years – most recently in the struggle for one Aid package for Ukraine.
• This may be the case with Orbán's political style and his right-wing populist style Fidesz lie, but also fits in historical contexts.
• Columnist Caroline de Gruyter hits out at the EU in this essay “Habsburg” solution for the problem with Hungary before.
• This article is available for the first time in German – the magazine first published it on January 31, 2024 Foreign policy.

Brussels – Viktor Orbán is playing poker in Brussels these days. By influencing decision-making on important issues such as the enlargement of the European Union and the Sweden's proposed NATO membership or even blocks the EU budget, the Hungarian Prime Minister annoys his colleagues from other member states. Most recently, the 27 heads of state and government had to travel to a summit in Brussels for one reason in particular: Orbán's continued refusal to agree to a financial aid package of 50 billion euros ($54.2 billion) for Ukraine.

However, Orban's tactics are not very surprising – at least from a historical perspective. The use of blackmail has been part of Hungary's political toolkit for centuries. In the Habsburg Empire, to which Hungary belonged until its collapse at the end of the First World War in 1918, things were similar – the country took, among other things, the common household hostage.

For those wondering how the EU should deal with Orbán in the future and whether he will ever stop being so difficult, this historical parallel is particularly instructive. Spoiler: He won't stop being difficult.

Even in Habsburg times: the Hungarians were a stubborn people

Even during the Habsburg era, the Hungarians were a stubborn people. Of all the nations, languages, and religious groups within the multinational empire, they were by far the most sophisticated. They knew that Emperor Franz Joseph (1830-1916) wanted to prevent the collapse of the empire at almost any cost and would go far to accommodate them.

In the mid-19th century, when Hungary was the Habsburg Empire's largest grain producer, Hungarians even stopped producing food for the rest of the empire for several years, producing just enough flour to feed themselves. In the so-called passive resistance movement, Hungarians also stopped paying taxes and boycotted public offices.

This was their reaction to the brutal manner in which Vienna had crushed their political rebellion during the European revolutionary years of 1848-1849. Their main demand was extensive autonomy. And their civil disobedience was actually successful in the end: in 1867, the empire was transformed into the so-called dual monarchy, a kind of alliance between two sovereign states, Austria and Hungary, each of which had extensive powers within the empire. From then on, the Hungarians were allowed to practically decide for themselves in matters such as education and health care in their half of the empire (which also included today's Croatia, Slovakia and Romania). However, foreign policy and defense remained federal. Here the emperor was in charge.

Hungary used the Habsburg budget as a bargaining chip – just like Orbán in the EU

Many historians agree that the Hungarians received the best offer of all parts of the empire due to their stubbornness and tough negotiating tactics. Hungary flourished under the Dual Monarchy. However, it was never satisfied and always pushed the emperor for more.

In one case, just like today, Hungary took part of the Habsburg budget hostage to get what it wanted: the abolition of the federal army, which had been a thorn in the side of the Hungarians. “Hungary's integration into the EU has not erased the memories of the Habsburgs, which often surface and are poorly understood by Western Europeans,” writes French historian Catherine Horel in her 2021 book “Histoire de la Nation Hongroise; des premiers Magyars à Viktor Orbán” (“History of the Hungarian Nation: From the First Hungarians to Viktor Orbán”).

The Hungarians viewed the imperial army as an occupying force. They wanted to have their own army. Since the emperor rejected their demand, they instead sought to eliminate some of the army's crucial foundations. For example, they disliked the federal language law, which stipulated that officers and soldiers (Czechs, Slovenes and others) could speak their native language while on duty. At the time of the Dual Monarchy, no fewer than 13 languages ​​were spoken in the empire.

For the emperor, who spoke many of these languages ​​more or less fluently, multilingualism was the spirit of the multinational empire. The soldiers often spoke German among themselves, but this was by no means compulsory. Hungary also abhorred this practice. In his half of the empire, only 40 percent of the population spoke Hungarian, i.e. Magyar. But immediately after the Compromise of 1867 – the compromise that established the Dual Monarchy – the Hungarians introduced a law forcing everyone to use the Hungarian language.

Austria became more liberal – Hungary pursued a Magyarization course

For example, non-Hungarian schools were closed. While the Austrian half of the empire became more liberal and decentralized over time, the opposite happened in Hungary: everything was centralized and Magyarized. “There were hardly any representatives of the national minorities in the Hungarian parliament (where the language was, of course, Magyar),” writes Habsburg expert Steven Beller in his book “The Habsburg Monarchy, 1815-1918.”

In 1903, the Hungarian parliament launched an attack on the imperial language law by refusing to approve the military budget. Just like in today's EU, Hungary had the right to veto the budget.

The emperor was angry. At the time, France, Tsarist Russia, Germany, and the Ottoman Empire—the powers that surrounded the Habsburg Empire—were engaged in an arms race. They spent three to four percent of their gross domestic product on defense. This worried the emperor greatly. The Habsburg armament was outdated. In the event of war, his empire could soon be outgunned. Franz Joseph therefore called on Hungary, which had tens of thousands of soldiers in the imperial army, to behave more responsibly in the face of these serious international threats.

Orbán's ambassador: “We always create tension”

But the Hungarians did what they often do when they are under pressure from all sides – they gave in. This is exactly how people are behaving in Brussels today: the more the collective pressure on Orbán piles up, the more Hungarians seem to confirm their self-image that they are on their own.

“We always tend to set ourselves against the rest of the world,” declared Hungarian Ambassador Anna Siko a few years ago in a lively discussion about the parallels between the Habsburg Empire and the EU. “We always create tension and make life difficult for others because we have to prove who we are every day.” The reason for this is that the Hungarian “allergy to others telling us what to do… drives us wild and makes it very undiplomatic.”

Diplomats and analysts in Brussels say they are not sure what Orban really wants. His goals seem to constantly shift. One of Orbán's recent goals has been the disbursement of European subsidies that Brussels is currently withholding – about 20 billion euros ($21.7 billion) – because of Hungary's rampant corruption and its violations of the rule of law. To obtain these funds, he blocks everything that comes his way: Swedish NATO membership, the financial and military aid package for Ukraine or the reappointment of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The more important the issue is for other member states, the better.

A bluff broke Hungary's blockade: Is there anything Orbán hates more?

In 1903, the emperor managed to break Hungary's blockade with an unusual bluff: he suddenly presented a new, surprisingly liberal electoral law that gave minorities significantly more voting rights. This law, Franz Joseph announced, was to come into force throughout the entire empire. Budapest, which hated the expanded minority rights even more than the imperial army's language law, promptly approved the budget it had previously blocked. Soon afterwards, of course, the imperial electoral law with expanded minority rights was taken off the table.

Following this analogy, could other 26 EU member states end the stalemate with Hungary on the budget issue by proposing something Orban hates more than sending 50 billion euros to Ukraine?

The EU has already debated the withdrawal of voting rights for Orbán's Hungary – history provides a joke

There is probably only one thing that would displease Hungary's prime minister more than withdrawing EU subsidies: depriving him of his right to vote in the EU Council (a procedure contained in Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union). diplomats explained Politico, this nuclear option has already been discussed among the other member states. However, the chances of it being used seem slim. Some heads of state apparently fear that if it is used against Orbán now, it could also be used against them tomorrow.

And so the 26 member states seem doomed to have their way with Hungary. This explains why Orbán, although he denigrates the European Union every day, does
not want to leave the EU: he is far more powerful inside the EU than outside the EU. He uses membership as leverage.

That's exactly what the Hungarians did in the Habsburg Empire: by being obnoxious, they got the best deals of all. But can you guess who was the last to leave when the empire collapsed and all the nations left one by one? That’s right: it was Hungary.

We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.

This article was first published in English on January 31, 2024 in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com“ was published – as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.