The ceasefire reached between Israel and Hamas, which comes into force this Sunday, opens the door to hope for rebuilding the Gaza Strip and could be the first step to lasting peace in the Middle East. However, there are still many obstacles that could turn this agreement into a dead letter because the line that separates peace from war is extremely fine in the most turbulent region on the planet.
“From the outset it is a very positive agreement because they are six weeks of tranquility for the Gaza Stripwhich will allow the arrival of humanitarian aid, food and much-needed medicine for a population that is dying daily after one of the most destructive military campaigns in modern history,” says José Vericat, principal researcher at the Real Elcano Institute for the Middle East, who emphasizes that “until now Netanyahu did not want to give up absolutely anything, neither to cease the attacks nor to allow the entry of trucks with humanitarian aid nor to release any Palestinian prisoners”, aspects that this agreement now includes. cease-fire.
Divided into three 42-day phases, the first includes the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for some 1,200 Palestinian prisoners, and a partial withdrawal of Israeli troopswhich in theory will only be able to occupy a 700-meter strip of land within the Palestinian enclave.
“The durability of the agreement and compliance with the clauses is doubtful. The most critical aspect will be the withdrawal of Israeli troops, especially in two points: the Netzarim brokera very wide corridor just south of Gaza City, which Israel has taken and controlled since the start of the war; and the Philadelphia corridoron the border with Egypt and which includes the Rafah border crossing,” says Vericat.
The second phase of the truce, the most critical
Sonia Sánchez, professor of International Relations and expert on the Middle East at the Francisco de Vitoria University, sees the second phase of the peace agreement as even more critical, because it contemplates the total withdrawal of the Israeli army: “Negotiations will begin in the second week of the first phase and That’s where the main obstacle will be. because it implies the total withdrawal of Israel when those closest to Netanyahu are already suggesting that this will not happen until the military defeat of Hamas occurs. “It is an ace that the Netanyahu government has up its sleeve to break the truce at any time.”
In fact, Israel’s Finance Minister, the far-right Bezalel Smotrichthreatened Netanyahu this Thursday with breaking up his coalition government if he does not commit to resuming the war in Gaza “immediately after” the end of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement.
“The peace agreement must be received with caution because Israel has right now a position of strength in the negotiation. With the weakening of Iran, and with the neutralization of Hezbollah and Hamas, everything will depend a little on Israel’s political will,” adds Sánchez.
José Miguel Calvillo, a doctor in International Relations from the Complutense University of Madrid, also sees the Israeli withdrawal as complicated: “I see it as not very feasible because Israel will at no time allow Hamas to strengthen itself again and, if it does not have a military presence in Gaza, it is it is very possible that Hamas will be reborn from its ashes. And even more so taking into account that the peace agreement contemplates the release of many Palestinian prisoners who, surely, some of them will want to strengthen their structure again.”
“One of the arguments against the truce that is heard within the Netanyahu government is precisely that the ceasefire is only going to be a lifeline for Hamas because Israel has not yet fulfilled its number 1 objective, which was completely eradicate the organization. Critics argue that it will only serve to once again have a strong presence in Palestinian society,” he adds.
“Trump’s role has been very important”
Sonia Sánchez emphasizes that “Donald Trump’s ability to impose conditions on the Netanyahu administration is going to be fundamental” for Israel to comply with the clauses established in the ceasefire. The president-elect of the United States has already played a leading role in this peace agreement, even before formally entering the White House this Monday. “Trump warned of a ‘great hell’ in Gaza if the hostages were not in their homes before taking office and there is no doubt that this agreement has been the result of the intervention of his special envoy, the real estate magnate Steve Witkoff,” says Vericat.
“Trump’s role has been very important because his new administration does not want to further destabilize the region. His intention is to focus on other priorities in international politics and, in addition, he wants to give new impetus to the Abraham Accords (normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab countries) and for this he needed the pacification of the conflict in Gaza,” agrees Calvillo.
“The conflict will continue to be latent”
But the scenario of a peaceful Gaza in the medium and long term is still presumed complicated, according to Vericat: “Israel has no intention of allowing the Palestinians to govern the Gaza Strip again because that is totally against the objectives set by Netanyahu and for which investigations have been carried out in the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice for crimes against humanity.” In addition, he points out that “the peace agreement does not even make reference to two fundamental aspects, such as the reconstruction of the Strip and its governance”.
“Honestly, I believe that the truce is not going to put an end to the conflict because we are talking about a long-term conflict. Surely the truce will allow it to decrease in intensity, but it will continue to be latent. I think that the situation will return to October 6, 2023to the day before the Hamas attacks, that is, to a normality in quotes in the daily lives of Gazans, although within the deep humanitarian crisis that currently exists,” says Calvillo.
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