The democratic decline at a global level observed in recent years constitutes a threat to the integrity of electoral processes, the quality of which has been decreasingwarned last week a report from the Swedish V-Dem institute at the University of Gothenburg.
The study indicates that 71% of the world's population lives in autocracies compared to 48% a decade ago, a process that affects more than half of the 60 countries that hold national elections in 2024, which can make this year “decisive “for the future of world democracy.
Electoral autocracies are the predominant model worldwide (44% of the population), while 29% live in electoral and liberal democracies.
“The democratic recession is most notable in Eastern Europe and South and Central Asia, while Latin America and the Caribbean go against the global trend and experience increases in the level of democracy,” Staffan I points out in a statement. Lindberg, director of this institute.
The democratic recession is most notable in Eastern Europe and South and Central Asia, while Latin America and the Caribbean buck the global trend and experience increases in the level of democracy.
In Eastern Europe, democracy has regressed to 1990 levels, maintains the V-Dem, citing Belarus, Russia, Hungary, Serbia, Croatia and Romania as examples.
The study aims to Hungary as the country with the “most pronounced” trend of the 42 currently experiencing episodes of autocratization, going from a liberal democracy in 2009 to an electoral autocracy.
The decline in Asia is marked by the recent deterioration suffered in India, while in the rest of the affected countries it is less pronounced, the report notes.
Brazil and Bolivia reverse the trend in Latin America
Unlike in Eastern Europe, in Latin America it is the most populated countries that represent the most democratic examples, while the most autocratic correspond to those with the smallest population, with the exception of Mexico.
Two countries have clearly reversed the autocratic process in which they were immersed, according to the V-Dem: Brazil, since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva came to power in 2023, and Bolivia, which recovered its status as an electoral democracy after the 2020 elections.
The Dominican Republic and Honduras, which have registered progress in the quality of their elections and civil liberties, are also experiencing positive democratic evolution.
At the opposite pole are Guatemala, Mexico, Guyana, Haiti, Peru and, especially, El Salvador and Nicaragua.
El Salvador has experienced the greatest democratic decline in recent years and has lost almost all the advances made in the previous two decades, coinciding with the Nayib Bukele regime.
Nicaragua is going through the “longest” autonomous autocratization process, which began in 2005 and was accentuated by the government of Daniel Ortega, the study maintains.
Deterioration in the quality of elections
The report reveals a “worrying” global trend of deterioration in electoral quality, which is reflected in the doubling of the number of countries immersed in processes of this type in the last four years.
Among the countries affected and holding general elections this year is the United States, whose result could be “critical” in the event of a new victory for Donald Trump.
“His rhetoric and actions, from calling his opponents parasites to threatening the Justice Department and journalists, constitute dangerous precedents. A second Trump term could further compromise democracy,” the report warns.
The V-Dem further points out that, Compared to the previous decade, almost all democratic components are worsening in most countries, especially freedom of expression.
In the classification of democratic countries – established based on an index, with a maximum value of 1 and which includes aspects such as freedom of expression and association, electoral quality and other elements – the Nordic countries maintain their leadership.
Thus, Denmark occupies the first position with 0.88, slightly ahead of Sweden and Estonia.
Costa Rica, the first Latin American country, appears in ninth place.
Spain is ranked twenty-third, with 0.76, one position and a value similar to that of previous years.
Created in 2014 and linked to the Kellogg Institute for International Studies, the V-Dem produces an annual democratic index and other reports and databases that are used by international organizations such as the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations Development Program. Development (UNDP).
EFE
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