Spanish banks have already lost 5% since the tax announcement

Last Thursday afternoon, the approval of the extension of the banking tax was announced, which will be valid for three years (until 2028) but which will undergo some changes in its structure, to make it more progressive. than this year’s, set at 4.8% on profits net of interest and commissions.

Thus, the new structure, consisting of several sections that progressively tax the profits of this sector, from 0% for the first 100 million to 7% for everything that exceeds 5,100 million, has a direct consequence on the impact that each individual would suffer. one of the entities in its benefits. According to Barclays experts, the bank most penalized by this change is CaixaBank, with a 2% cut in its estimated earnings per share for 2025.

And this has been reflected in the stock market. During these five sessions that have passed since then, the Spanish sector has dropped 5% of its value compared to 0.9% of the Ibex 35. Logically, there are differences between the six entities and clearly the market has recognized that it will suffer the greatest impact CaixaBank. However, the 7% penalty on the stock market It far exceeds the expected decline in profits, as has happened with the rest of the companies.

In the case of BBVA, the drop is just over 5% despite the fact that the deterioration in profit will remain at 0.2%, according to Barclays calculations. In Santanderwhere the loss of profits compared to the previous regulation is 0.3%, investors have sold, causing them to fall more than 4% in these five days.

The three banks that benefit from the proposed tax change have not been spared from the heavy stock market losses either, which are Bankinter, Unicaja and Sabadellwhich lose a 1.5, 4 and 5% in this stock market period. “This tax was expected and we believe that it should not be a cause for concern in the market, although the fact of maintaining a tax that can hardly be linked to extraordinary profits can generate uncertainty among shareholders, contributing to a certain degree of stigmatization towards Spanish banks. , especially domestic ones,” they point out at Deutsche Bank.

“Obviously, the final impact should not be too harmful compared to the previous three years, even for the one that is most affected, which is CaixaBank,” the German entity continues. “On the other hand, the banks that had been disproportionately taxed this year have now been treated more fairly, such as Unicaja, so, although maintaining the tax is never good news, at least it does not worsen what exists,” they conclude.

The maximums of the year are moving away

The sector in Spain, compiled by the Ibex Banks index, is already listed on lows not seen since August after these falls, being now more than 10% away from recovering the highs of the year, reached at the end of April.

But not all of them have the same lost path. Bankinter gives up less than 8% from the annual ceiling while BBVA has already retraced more than 20%also penalized by the open takeover bid for Sabadell, which could be derailed at any moment due to the obstacles that Competition probably imposes.

For their part, Sabadell, Unicaja, Santander and CaixaBank they already give up double digits from annual highspunished by the acceleration of expectations of rate cuts in recent weeks.

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