The activity of the Spanish industry once again showed more than satisfactory results at the end of 2024, reaching 32-month highs recorded in October. All this while the two industrial powers of Europe: France and Germany, mark historic lows. The S&P Global PMI index, published this Thursday, rose in the last month of the year to 53.3 points, compared to 53.1 the previous month, extending the expansionary terrain for 11 months. The line above 50 points indicates expansion, while if it is below, it marks contraction of activity.
In the German case, the industry is still unable to recover, which indicates that the winter recession is increasingly clear. The PMI index marked its lowest level in three months, closing the year at 42.5 points, compared to the 43 that were registered in November. In the case of France, the PMI index fell in the last month of the year to the lowest level since the pandemic. After scoring 43.1 points in November, in December it accelerated its contraction to 41.9 points.
S&P experts highlight that the Spanish case “continues strength” backed by “simultaneous and faster increases in both production and new orders.”
According to the report, demand showed enormous strength in both new orders and exports, which registered significant increases. At the same time, there was growth in key markets, especially in Europe and North Africa. This translated into a response from companies when it came to expanding their workforces, marking employment growth for the fourth consecutive month.
Likewise, the companies interviewed showed a tone of positivism in December regarding confidence in future prospects.
Hamburg Commercial Bank economist Jonas Feldhusen reiterated that Spanish industry shows “resilience” in the face of “European weakness in the manufacturing sector.” The expert highlighted that, while other European countries “face serious consequences” such as mass layoffs, factory closures and a “collapse” of investments. Spain “is experiencing economic growth in its manufacturing sector. This fact can be attributed to its ample energy supply and its relatively low dependence on exports from China,” he summarizes.
“The tariffs imposed by the new US administration will cause disruptions globally. Although Spanish exporters They depend less on exports to the United States than other European countries, a slowdown in global trade could still have negative consequences for them,” the experts summarize.
The situation in Germany is worrying in every way. The chief economist of Hamburg Commercial Bank, Cyrus de la Rubia, highlights that the situation of the German secondary sector, a key pillar of its growth, “remains quite gloomy.” Production is declining and new orders continue to fall “making it clear that the industry will not emerge from the recession in the near future.” De la Rubia does not mince words in his analysis: “It has been a lost year for the manufacturing sector.” He predicts this trend could end in the second half of 2025.
Finally, Hamburg Commercial Bank economist Tariq Kamal Chaudhry noted that France’s industrial crisis “intensified at the end of 2024.” The public debt of the neighboring country continues to represent a major problem for its economy, “exacerbated by the climate of high political uncertainty,” notes Chaudhry. The expert criticizes that the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, “has not yet formed a strong government capable of taking the necessary measures to reduce the deficit by reducing spending and increasing income.”
The economist says that “it seems difficult” to resume growth in 2025. “The reluctance of clients to make investment expenses contributes to the climate of pessimism that prevails in the sector. In fact, the twelve-month business outlook index remained in negative territory in December”. This caused French manufacturers to “significantly reduce their workforce.”
The horizon of the European industry is quite clouded and, in principle, experts believe that the entry in 2025 will not be much better.
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