Russia | Why would Putin risk being arrested and travel to a poor landlocked country?

Russian manager Vladimir Putin shows great confidence in partner country Mongolia by traveling there, even if Mongolia is in principle obliged to detain Putin.

STT reported on Monday evening that, according to Russian state media, Putin had arrived in the country.

It is the first time since the arrest warrant issued in March of last year that Putin appears before the chamber of a member country of the International Criminal Court, ICC. ICC gave about Putin arrest warrantbecause he holds him responsible for child abductions in Ukraine.

A trip to a poor landlocked country is obviously important to Putin, when he is willing to risk being arrested for it.

Yet a year ago, due to the same arrest warrant, Putin missed a trip to South Africa, which, like Mongolia, has ratified the ICC treaty. Putin participated in the Brics summit held there via remote connection. Before the meeting, South Africa had long persuaded Russia to keep Putin away, the news agency reported AP.

South Africa already had experience of a similar situation. It failed to arrest the president of Sudan, who is wanted by the ICC Omar al-Bashirwhen he visited South Africa in 2015. Later The ICC statedthat South Africa had failed to comply with its obligations. Nothing but reputational damage followed for South Africa.

Now, however, the reputational disadvantage is not an obstacle for the Mongolian president Hurelsuh to Uhnaag invited Putin to participate in the 85th anniversary ceremony of the Battle of the Halhin-Gol River. The Russian administration says about the invitation in the bulletin. In Halhin-Goli, the Soviet Union and Mongolia fought together against Japan.

Why the trip is so important that Russia is willing to risk Putin’s freedom and Mongolia is willing to take a hit to its international reputation? The reason is hardly at least the Halhin-Goli battle.

“Of course, the roots of the meeting are in modern times,” states the post-doctoral fellow at the Institute of Foreign Policy who specializes in relations between Russia and Central Asia Kristiina Silvan.

“It’s about money and, above all, Mongolia’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels.”

According to him, the benefits of visiting Mongolia are greater than the disadvantages.

Mongolia strives to maintain friendly relations with Russia, on which it depends, Silvan states. Without Russian oil products, Mongolia’s industry cannot run. Mongolia’s and South Africa’s relations with Russia differ in that Mongolia is dependent on Russian oil.

However, Mongolia has tried to maintain good relations also with, for example, the United States and the European Union. Mongolia also has more democratic features than other countries in the region.

In Mongolia, it may be thought that a solid foundation has already been created for relations with the West, on which relations can be built in the future, despite the reputational damage, Silvan estimates.

to Russia The benefits of Putin’s trip are largely symbolic, but that does not diminish their importance.

If Putin is not arrested in Mongolia, from Russia’s point of view it will show that the international rules-based system has eroded and that Russia still has friends in different parts of the world.

“It is a symbolic victory for Putin that he is still welcome,” says Silvan.

“It is important for the Russian administration to show that the situation in world politics is not ‘everyone against Russia’, but ‘Russia against the United States and its allies.'”

Sure it is at least theoretically possible that Mongolia will surprise everyone and arrest Putin.

However, the Kremlin is not worried about it at all, because Russia has a “wonderful dialogue with Mongolian friends”, says the state news agency Tass.