Even the worst war comes to an end. Sometimes, like in 1945, the only result is a fight to the death.
However, most wars end in a deal that satisfies no one completely, but at least puts an end to the bloodshed.
And often, even after the worst and most bitter conflicts, the two sides gradually resume their former, less hostile relationship.
If we are lucky, we are beginning to see the beginning of this process between Russia and Ukraine.
Resentment, particularly on the Ukrainian side, will last for decades.
But both sides want and need peace: Ukraine, because its towns and cities have taken a terrible beating.
And Russia, because it has already sacrificed, according to the Ukrainian president, more men and material than it has lost in its two terribly violent wars in Chechnya, although that is impossible to verify.
But no one voluntarily signs a peace agreement that could lead to their own downfall.
For the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, the search for ways to save face is on.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has already shown remarkable skill as a diplomat, and is clearly willing to say and do whatever is acceptable to him and his people in order to drive Russia out of his country.
For him, there is one overriding goal: to ensure that Ukraine emerges from this ordeal as a united and independent country, not as a province of Russia, which is what President Putin originally thought he could do.
For President Putin, all that counts now is that he can declare victory.
Never mind that everyone in your entire government understands that Russia has lost a lot in this unnecessary invasion.
Never mind that the 20% or more of Russians who understand what is really going on in the world know that Putin staked the country’s credibility on a fantasy of his own invention and lost.
The battle will be for the support of the remaining majority of the population, which tends to implicitly believe what state television says.
Even when there are moments like the sudden appearance on the screen of the extraordinarily brave TV editor Marina Ovsyannikova with a banner claiming that what they see is propaganda.
So what will make President Putin come out of this disastrous war looking good in the eyes of most of Russia?
First, a guarantee, perhaps even written into Ukraine’s constitution, that it has no intention of joining NATO in the foreseeable future.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky already paved the way for this by asking NATO for something he could not accept. (establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine).
After which he criticized the alliance for letting him down on this and finally mused out loud that given the organization’s behavior it was probably not worth joining.
However intelligent and wise his political position may be, there is nothing beyond this.
NATO bears its guilt, which it can easily deal with, and Ukraine gets the freedom to act as it wishes.
But that’s the easy part.
Join the European Union
It will be more difficult to hone in on Zelensky’s and Ukraine’s urgent ambition to join the European Union, something to which Russia is almost equally hostile, though there are also ways around it.
The hardest thing for Ukraine to swallow will be the complete theft of Ukrainian territory by Russia, a total violation of the international treaty he had signed to protect Ukraine’s borders.
The loss of Crimea in 2014 is something Ukraine may well be forced to come to terms with formally, in some way.
And Russia clearly intends to hold on to those areas in eastern Ukraine that are already virtually under Russian control, and perhaps more.
In 1939, Joseph Stalin invaded Finland, which had once been part of the Russian empire.
He was sure his troops would make their way in no time, just as Putin thought they would in the Ukraine now.
Stalin’s generals, Understandably terrified for their lives, they promised him that he was right.
But of course it wasn’t.
The Winter War dragged on until 1940, the Soviet army was humiliated, and Finland was left with justified national pride in resisting a superpower.
It lost ground, because autocrats like Stalin and Putin need to come out of these things as if they had won a victory.
But Finland kept the most important, the most imperishable thing: its full independence as a free and self-determined nation.
But Vladimir Putin would have to start using much more serious weapons even than he has already used, if he wants to be victorious.
As it is, in the third week of fighting, no one can seriously doubt who will be the real winner of this war.
*John Simons is the BBC’s International Affairs Editor.
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BBC-NEWS-SRC: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-60766750, IMPORTING DATE: 2022-03-16 14:20:05
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