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Ukraine is now allowed to fire into Russia, but only a short distance. This continues to play into Putin’s hands, experts complain.
Kharkiv – “I learned in tactical training that I have to be able to hold on to areas that I win,” says Janet Watson. She is a captain in the Bundeswehr’s editorial team and recently asked in the podcast Inquiredto what extent Russia is capable of doing this in the Kharkiv area or at all. Her interview partner answered in the affirmative – Vladimir Putin is pushing the National Guard behind the front to hold the occupied areas and is trying to Russify the administration, for example by making Russian the official language, said Major General Christian Freuding from the Ukrainian Special Staff in the Ministry of Defense.
However, the Russians may be slowly losing their momentum, as the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) claims that by allowing the West to allow Western weapons to penetrate deeper into Russia, Russia has lost 16 percent of its territory, which was considered “inviolable,” to potential control by Ukraine.
USA is certain: easing restrictions on Ukraine makes military sense
By allowing the US to attack targets outside occupied Ukrainian territory, analysts at the ISW assume that Ukrainian forces with multiple rocket launchers in the Russian administrative districts of Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk could potentially attack any legitimate Russian military target within the range of their HIMARS systems. However, the extent to which Ukraine has the authorization for such attacks is unclear, writes the KyivPost“A senior US military official told parliamentarians in early May that easing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American weapons on Russian territory would make ‘military sense,’ according to two participants in the meeting,” reports the magazine Politico.
“It’s a game of cat and mouse – a race against time. If you want to achieve a lasting result, it’s better to attack massively without warning – and not to do things lightly.”
According to the WashingtonPost US President Joe Biden authorizes Ukrainian commanders to “‘strike back against Russian forces attacking them or preparing to attack’ in and around Kharkiv, near the border in northeastern Ukraine,” as the post writes. That would mean that Ukraine could shoot back if it were attacked or if it intended to eliminate military installations just across the border, adds the KyivPostAt the end of May, the ISW still complains that Russia continues to enjoy a certain amount of protection thanks to the West’s restrained policy, “in which the Russian military can shield its forces before they get close enough to Kharkiv or penetrate other parts of Ukraine”.
Ukraine’s notable success: Long-range drones damage Putin’s prestige bomber
Even if the Ukrainian artillery and air force are still prohibited from attacking Russian units and positions or depots without direct operational influence, Putin’s profits may now be reduced: The reduction in the area of this protective area puts the ISW to up to 16 percent. The ISW However, it does not provide any precise information on the background of the percentages, so the reference values are probably the administrative districts of Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk, but there is no definitive information on the maximum assumed size of the Russian protection area.
At least Ukraine has recently achieved a respectable success over a distance of almost 600 kilometers in the Russian heartland: the defenders had bombarded an airfield. Russia had parked Sukhoi Su-57 stealth bombers at the Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan administrative district. Based on satellite images, one of the bombers standing in the open appears to have been at least slightly damaged – if not completely put out of action. However, the attack was carried out using long-range drones, i.e. without Western weapons. The stealth bombers are, for example, the carrier systems for glide bombs that prepare the ground for the infantry forces. And they are Putin’s prestige bombers.
Russia’s gain in space is considerable: 750 square kilometers – the area of the city of Hamburg
The Russian infantry has remained unchanged in the initiative since May, said Christian Freuding in Inquired on June 7th. The Bundeswehr general reports that this year the Russians have gained territory up to 17 kilometers deep into the Ukraine – in the areas of Kharkiv and Belgorod, which the Ukraine is now allowed to fire on under certain conditions. Freuding speaks of the Russians gaining up to 750 square kilometers of territory since the beginning of the year – “to put that in perspective: that’s roughly the size of the city of Hamburg,” he says. According to his information, the Russians have annexed around 200 square kilometers around Kharkiv alone.
The change of heart of the Western powers is due to the changed situation, adds Freuding. In Inquired He reports, for example, of helicopters that were in the air on the border with Ukraine and had an impact on Ukraine without the defenders being allowed to defend themselves. Or of artillery positions on Russian territory that had days to fire on Ukrainian targets without being disturbed. “This is in no way justifiable from a military or moral perspective,” says the staff officer. Targets on Russian territory or in Russian airspace that are legitimate under international law are now open to attack.
Range of Ukrainian firepower: 16 percent of the “inviolable” Russian protective space
It is uncertain whether Ukraine’s reach of now 16 percent of the possible Russian territory will ultimately become significant. Markus Reisner, a colonel in the Austrian Federal Army, has also begun to have doubts. On the Austrian Army website, he described the effectiveness of the expansion of firepower as an act of desperation: “The Russians decide where to attack – and Ukraine is forced to react. Ukraine must break this vicious circle at all costs, otherwise its forces will be steadily worn down. For this reason, an attempt is now being made to massively expand the attacks to Russian territory.”
After all, he considers the effectiveness of Western weapons to be very effective – but also the ability of the Russians to disrupt the effectiveness of these weapons. Excalibur grenades or HIMARS missiles are now almost ineffective because the Russians manage to disrupt their GPS transmitters and the missiles sometimes miss their targets by a wide margin. According to a report by New York Times The USA had stopped supplying Excalibur grenades because their hit rate had dropped to an alarming extent.
According to the NYT found that “the share of confirmed successful attacks fell from a high of 55 percent during the January-August 2023 period to a low of seven percent in July and six percent in August, the months when Ukraine’s sluggish summer counteroffensive reached its peak. At one point, only one in 19 Excalibur shells hit its target,” the NYT writes of the analysis.
The Austrian Reisner also sees no silver lining in the 16 percent – just as the KyivPostwhich almost takes on US President Joe Biden head-on: “US policy still protects most of Russia’s operational and deep hinterland, and US policy prohibits Ukraine from deploying ATACMS anywhere in Russia,” she writes. Reisner also still sees Russia at an advantage – even if the Russian offensive has apparently lost momentum at the moment: Russia has time to prepare for future attacks: “It’s a game of cat and mouse – a race against time. If you want to achieve a decisive result, it is better to attack massively without warning – and not to do things lightly.”
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