The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has been late in congratulating donald trump for his victory in the US presidential elections, but in the end he did so with many congratulations. He has even praised Trump’s “bravery” after the attack he suffered and he proposed recover dialogue between Moscow and Washington. At the moment in nuclear matters, because regarding the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin hopes that it will be the elected president who takes the first step.
According to Putin on Thursday night at a forum held in Sochi, on the Russian Black Sea, Trump’s “desire” to “reestablish relations with Russia” and “contribute to ending the crisis” in Ukraine “deserves, At the very least, attention.” As a sign of goodwill, The Russian president announced that Moscow is willing to talk with the United States about strategic stability and atomic disarmament.
Putin thus extends his hand to Trump to recover the nuclear dialogue, mired by the confrontation over Ukraine, and recalls Moscow’s intention to negotiate on the war, although under certain conditions that are now not met. In any case, The Russian president expressed his willingness to reach a “long-term arrangement”with the goal of Ukraine being an “independent and sovereign state.”
Of course, independent of Western influence and sovereign in the territory that has not been annexed by Russia. In the NATO and European Union headquarters in Brussels, these words have made more than one shift in their seats.
Moscow does not believe in Trump’s promise to end the war in 24 hours
The Kremlin doubts that Trump will end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours as the Republican leader and former US president announced already in 2023 and which he reiterated many times in the election campaign that gave him victory this Tuesday.
“Evidently, it was in some way an exaggeration when he said he will do it in one night,” commented the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov. In any case, Putin’s spokesperson addedRussia assumes that Trump “plans to propose something to resolve the Ukrainian crisis before his inauguration” on January 20. Peskov did not rule out that Trump will call Putin soon.
The Russian president knows he has an advantage. Russia leads the war initiative and many Republican politicians demand in the US Congress an end to the conflict and the economic drain that it costs to arm Ukraine.
Besides, Moscow raises more support every day in the Global Southas was proven in the recent BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan, and its growing military ties with China and North Korea are of great concern to Washington.
US elections “close a chapter”
And no less important, Dissension spreads in Europe over support for kyivespecially if the US gets off the wagon. This Friday, the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbánwas very eloquent when pointing out in a radio message that Trump “does not start wars” and “hates war” because “he is a businessman.”
Orbán insisted that the US can end the Ukraine conflictbecause “Europe cannot finance this war alone.” He predicted that the number of countries in NATO and the EU that adapt to “the new situation” and refuse to continue sending money to a contest that “is lost” for Ukraine will increase.
According to the Hungarian prime minister, very close to Putin and opposed to the sanctions imposed by the West on Moscow, Trump’s victory has changed the international political situation and reinforced the “gigantic” majority of countries that ask for peace in Ukraine.
“With the US elections a chapter has closed,” said Orbán.
Zelensky, confused by the most unpredictable Trump
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyspeaking to the press on Thursday night in Budapest, where he participated in the European Political Community (EPC) summit, said that Trump had not informed him, when he called him to congratulate him a day earlier, about possible plans to negotiate the end of the war with Russia. But he insisted that a “quick end” to the conflict would mean “losses” for Ukraine.
Currently, Russia controls almost a fifth of Ukraine and it does not seem that kyiv’s army is going to reduce on the battlefield those territorial “losses” that, according to Zelensky, there would be if an armistice were negotiated.
In recent weeks, the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine has resulted in the taking of new places that are clearing the way for the Kremlin’s army to take over the entire Donetsk region, one of its military objectives. Progress is also being made towards the strategic town of Kupiansk, the gateway to Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine.
The strategy is clear: Russian troops have occupied advantageous heights around the Ukrainian bastions of Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk or Kurajovewith the aim of completing that conquest of Donetsk. The next step would be the large cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. His capture and the direct threat that would loom over kyiv would end the war.
In addition, the bombing of the Ukrainian energy system has increased, which portends a very hard winter for the population. Such attacks have increased the number of civilian victims of Russian bombs in recent hours, with the death of a dozen people in the city of Zaporizhzhia and extensive damage in Odessa and Kharkiv.
On the other hand, according to kyiv, The troops sent by North Korea to fight this war under the orders of Moscow have already entered combat in the Russian Kursk regionwhere Ukrainian forces still maintain control of a small territory since August. This North Korean participation in the conflict is a message from Moscow to the US about the risk that the war will extend its collateral effects to Asia, where China also closes ranks with Russia.
Putin will not give up his conquests and wants Ukraine out of NATO
In this context we must situate Putin’s position, open to talking about nuclear weapons (in an ominous wake-up call to remember what would be at stake in a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO) and to negotiating peace in Ukraine, but without renounce their war and geopolitical objectives.
These objectives include the seizure of the entire Donbas (historical Russian-speaking territory that includes the Ukrainian regions of Lugansk and Donetsk, most of which have already been annexed by Russia) and Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO. The Alliance’s persistence in opening its arms to kyiv was one of the reasons given by the Kremlin to invade Ukraine in February 2022.
In Sochi, Putin was blunt about what the relationship between Ukraine and NATO should be. “If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine any kind of good-neighborly relationship between Russia and Ukraine,” he explained before the Valdai Debate Club that was held in that Black Sea resort.
According to the American newspaper Wall Street Journalwith sources from Trump’s team, he could accept that Ukraine delay its entry into NATO for twenty years in order to bring Russia to the negotiating table.
Trump’s task: convince Russians, Ukrainians and Europeans
Trump wants to have the Ukrainian conflict settled before his term begins in January, or at least on the path to a negotiation process. A very difficult task, therefore will have to convince its European allies that they continue betting on a war which so far has not borne much fruit for kyiv.
More importantly, he will have to achieve acceptance of this state of affairs by Zelensky, without provoking an internal conflict in Ukraine, since such a step would mean accepting defeat against Russia. And without the security of shielding itself in NATO, any agreement that involves the transfer of territory to Russia will not be acceptable to kyiv.
One way to put pressure on kyiv could be the threat to withdraw all US aid if Zelensky does not sit down to negotiate with Putin. That’s at least what some Trump advisers said last summer.
It will be more complicated to pretend that Russia does not ask for much more at the negotiating table. A few months ago, Republicans believed that Moscow could be pressured with the threat of triggering arms shipments to Ukraine. Such a command makes little sense in the current situation, with Russia imposing itself on the front and with its war economy at full steam, manufacturing weapons and ammunition.
Raising the ante on the possibility that Trump chooses to impose negotiations, the secretary of the Russian Security Council (CSR), Sergei Shoigu, this Thursday, asked the US and Europe to accept the current war scenario to address this negotiated solution to the conflict.
“Now, when the situation in the theater of military operations does not favor the kyiv regime, the West faces a dilemma: continue financing it and killing the Ukrainian population, or recognize the current reality and start negotiating,” said the former minister of Defense and confidant of Putin.
While waiting for Trump to make his move, only one thing seems clear: Putin has designated him as his interlocutor, while leaving Zelensky aside. The next few weeks will thus be key for the future of the war and of Ukraine itself. In any case, as the American channel CNN, aware of Trump’s unpredictable departures, expressed in an analysis, “the road that awaits Kiev is extremely hard.”
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