A few weeks ago, hundreds of people gathered in the streets of Valera, a small city in the state of Trujillo, western Venezuela, to welcome María Corina Machado, the country’s leading opposition figure. He had spent days rallying crowds in rural towns across the state to support a little-known former diplomat, Edmundo González Urrutia, who is now the opposition candidate and main rival to Nicolás Maduro in the July 28 presidential election. That rally was part of an unprecedented campaign in the history of Venezuela, after the Government prohibited Machado from running as a candidate in the elections.
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Like much of the state of Trujillo, Valera has been a Chavista stronghold since the late Hugo Chávez began his Bolivarian revolution in 1999. However, at this rally, Even the people who attended the government-sponsored counter-marches seemed seduced by Machado. People who were on a bus with the slogan “Nicolás is hope” – in reference to President Maduro, who aspires to a third term – began to greet her and cheer her when they saw her walking through the center of the city.
The gesture in favor of Machado in Trujillo was not an isolated event either. Days earlier, Machado had led massive rallies in Portuguesa, an agricultural powerhouse and, at one point, the state with the highest per capita share of the Chavista vote. These rallies illustrate how the political landscape has changed On the eve of Venezuela’s most important presidential elections in many years, facing a dictatorial regime built on the socialist ideas of Chavismo, against a growing and unified opposition seeking a return to democracy.
But there are reasons for caution. “A small part of soft Chavismo feels curiosity, rather than sympathy, for what the opposition could offer”Félix Seijas, director of the Caracas-based polling firm Delphos, told Americas Quarterly (AQ). “So far he does not feel massively attracted (by the opposition), but There is a part that even voted in the primaries”. Some Chavista areas recorded high participation in the primaries held in October 2023, in which Machado won overwhelmingly, catapulting his political trajectory to new heights. The recent results are based on the 2021 regional elections, in which Chavismo lost the state of Barinas – the birthplace of Chávez – and dozens of rural municipalities that it once controlled.
Although it is difficult to predict the implications of this change of opinion by part of the then hard core of Chavismo, His turn may play a significant role in the upcoming presidential race on July 28, in which more than 21 million citizens are registered to vote. In recent days, Machado – discarded by the Chavista leadership for her pro-market opinions and upper-class origins – has made a series of public appearances alongside González Urrutia, the candidate who will appear on the card, creating a campaign style directed by a de facto duo. A recent survey by the polling company ORC Consultores, based in Caracas, shows that The former diplomat is ahead of Maduro in voting intentions; however, more than 18% of voters are undecided.
JAlong with Machado, prominent political figures from the once fragmented opposition have backed González Urrutia or have appeared at rallies and events with him.gaining ground in states that until recently were bastions of the dominant United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Psuv), They are mainly rural areas hit by the collapse of the welfare state and the country’s public services. following an economic contraction on a scale rarely seen in peacetime.
Both from exile and within Venezuela, opposition leaders Henrique Capriles, Leopoldo López, Juan Guaidó, Henry Ramos Allup and Delsa Solórzano have also supported González Urrutia.
The opposition coalition has expanded beyond its main parties gathered in the Unitary Platform, and the former diplomat’s candidacy has also received support from smaller groups, from democratic socialists and conservatives to Marxist-Leninists and dissident Chavistas. In total, including organizations not recognized by the government and the electoral authority, More than 30 political organizations have publicly supported his campaign. However, despite the support that González Urrutia’s campaign is obtaining, analysts such as Mark Feierstein warn that the result of the elections is not yet decided.
Broken promises
For Margarita López Maya, a historian who has studied the country’s left, The decline in Chavismo’s popularity in its central areas has to do with the sources of its base’s loyalty, which according to her are less ideological and more related to the leader’s charisma and benefits. that the clientelist circuits of the party could provide. “What fundamentally drives Chavismo is clientelism”Lopez Maya told AQ. The well-known political strategy of offering one-off bonuses, food assistance and public employment has been particularly effective for the Maduro regime. Throughout rural Venezuela, millions of people work in municipal and regional governments.
However, according to the Caracas-based research and consulting firm Ecoanalítica, Around 65% of Venezuelans earn less than $100 a month. Inflation (at an annualized rate of nearly 90 percent) remains among the highest in the world, credit is extremely scarce, the minimum wage hovers around $4, and oil production is languishing. The stagnation of the Venezuelan economy, a remnant of what it once was, has fueled the rise of González Urrutia in the polls. In these systems, people “do not have the possibility of working and supporting themselves,” explains Mirla Pérez, a researcher at the Alejandro Moreno Popular Research Center (Ceesp), who studies Venezuelan neighborhoods and rural areas.
For many Venezuelans, Maduro has not provided the well-being that the Bolivarian revolution promised. Faced with disenchantment and frustration, grassroots Chavistas barely receive social assistance. The rural and low-income sectors, which were bastions of Chavismo, no longer generate mobilization or enthusiasm. “Machado is collecting the aspirational demands for a better life, related to the material conditions of the middle class”said Rafael Uzcátegui, a human rights activist who runs the Peace Laboratory organization.
Implosion and diaspora
Faced with the implosion of the old Chavista system, Machado’s message of political change gains strength. “It is an attractive message of hope, of change, of alternation”says López Maya. Apparently in response to Machado’s rise, Maduro has displayed blue banners – replacing the characteristic red of Chavismo with the blue associated with Machado– with the motto ‘Hope is in the streets’.
Another factor that plays against the support base of Chavismo and inclines rural and low-income sectors towards González Urrutia and Machado could be the country’s massive migration crisis, which has caused nearly eight million Venezuelans to live abroad.
Still, the opposition faces major challenges, ranging from a judicial measure that could remove their parties from the ballots to the possibility of an armed conflict with Guyana for the disputed territory of Essequibo, which could serve as an excuse for the suspension of the elections.
“There are no tarot cards or magic balls that can tell you what will happen”“But you can feel that change is in the air,” says Paola Bautista de Alemán, a political scientist and vice president of an opposition party.
TONY FRANGIE MAWAD
AMERICAS QUARTERLY
CARACAS
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