Depending on who analyzes it, the drama that Russia starred in last Saturday was an episode of ‘Black Mirror’, a horror story, or a hilarious comedy of Slavic surrealism. Opinions are also divided on whether Vladimir Putin has emerged weakened or strengthened from the ordeal thrown at him by Evgeni Prigozhin, the eccentric boss of the Wagner mercenaries. We will have to wait to determine who is right. For now, what no one can dispute is that the attempted coup d’état has shown that Russia’s military strength is not what would be expected from a nuclear power, the main heir to the Soviet Union. The affront has cast countless doubts on the country and its leader, unable to stop the advance of an armored column along one of its roads. But one of the most disturbing unknowns, and with the most global implications, is the one that hovers over the future of Wagner and his business outside of Russia.
For this reason, today we will delve into the businesses that have turned Wagner into a force capable of putting the Kremlin in check.
These are the three topics we will address
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The future of Wagner’s business in the world
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Storms in one of the most stable African countries, Senegal
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Declassified documents on the origin of the coronavirus
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the russian shadow
Wagner’s mercenary empire is faltering
The one on Saturday could be the best publicity campaign ever carried out by a mercenary group. Wagner’s show of force, abandoning the Ukrainian front for a 180-degree turn and heading for Moscow in a cold sweat in the Kremlin, leaves Blackwater’s Americans level with bitumen. But it could also spell the end of a group whose activities go far beyond invading Ukraine and taking Bakhmut. Because if Wagner can afford twin skyscrapers as his St. Petersburg headquarters, it’s largely thanks to his lucrative operations in Africa, where he acts as Russia’s shadow power.
Much has been said about the origins of the group and how Evgeni Prigozhin has gone from being a simple hotelier to becoming a man capable of standing up to the Russian Defense Minister. The companions Óscar Beltrán de Otálora and Gerardo Elorriaga have published in the pages of the newspaper what there is to know about this character worthy of his own series. But less is known about how Wagner has pocketed billions of dollars exploiting natural resources in some of the world’s poorest countries, where all indications are that they will continue to operate. Because Wagner is an economic empire. Some call it a ‘Russian state-backed paramilitary cartel’, which has influence mostly in Africa or Syria, but also in Venezuela. Like any other mercenary business, it serves to do Russia’s dirty work without its leaders getting their hands dirty. It’s nothing new. The Americans have used similar tactics with companies like Blackwater in countries they have invaded. Contractors, they are euphemistically called. But Wagner goes further.
The Wall Street Journal has identified a network of 64 companies linked to Prigozhin that are used as fronts for everything from arms trafficking to diamond trading. It is a formula that was put into operation in Syria in 2015, when Wagner was mandated to protect President Assad’s energy resources in exchange for payment in kind: 25% of the oil and gas produced at those facilities. Prigozhin continues to control through his shell companies several of the exploited deposits in Syria, which bring him tens of millions of euros a year.
This model has spread throughout Africa. Libya, Sudan, Mali and, above all, the Central African Republic are a mine for Wagner. Literally. There, mercenaries offer security and military supply services to corrupt governments that often fight guerrilla groups in exchange for their natural resources, including gold and timber. It is estimated that the Ndassima mine alone can produce more than 40 tons of gold in less than a decade. In other words, it can provide more than 300 million euros a year. It is the whiting that bites its tail: the more Wagner operates in Africa, the more influence it gains and the more it can spread across a continent to which the West has turned its back, leaving it at the mercy of Wagner and Chinese companies.
What will happen now if Wagner’s troops join the regular ranks of soldiers? The implications for Africa could be more than significant, and analysts agree that it is too sweet a deal to pass up. And too delicate for the Kremlin to decide to assume them with its forces. So it is very unlikely that Wagner will disappear, because for many governments it is a necessary evil.
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political crisis
Senegal is in crisis
In Senegal, as far as is known, there are no Wagner mercenaries. However, in recent weeks one of the most stable countries in Africa has become a good example of the volatility that makes the continent desirable territory for groups like Prigozhin’s. Because it is experiencing one of its worst political crises since next year’s presidential candidate, Ousmane Sonko, was sentenced in absentia to two years in prison for “corrupting the youth.” This could prevent him from running in the elections, as he denounced would happen when he stated that there was a political strategy to eliminate him. Clashes between opposition supporters and the police have left two dozen dead and hundreds arrested.
If this happens in Senegal, it is easy to understand why destabilizing forces at the service of unscrupulous governments, such as the Russian one, are interested in intervening in Africa, either in support of opposing leaders or guerrilla groups. As if that were not enough, the borders drawn with pencils by the former colonial powers make it easier for instability to spread to regions of great sociocultural complexity inhabited by ethnic groups that are often in conflict.
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Covid-19
Secret coronavirus documents do not reveal the origin of the pandemic
It seems that it was in a past life, but the truth is that only a few weeks have passed since the World Health Organization officially decreed the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. And it is not yet known how it began. There are theories for all tastes: from the natural zoonosis that most scientists bet on to the ‘conspiracy’ that speaks of a Machiavellian Chinese plan to boost itself towards world hegemony.
Undoubtedly, the opacity with which Beijing has managed the crisis and the absence of a ‘patient zero’ do not help to dispel doubts. Even less if one takes into account that three Chinese specialists employed at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where many bat viruses are kept, fell ill when the first cases began to be detected. The curious thing is that one of them worked precisely with coronavirus in programs financed by the United States, a juicy carambola for conspiracies. Even the FBI is opting for the possibility of the accident in the laboratory, which comes in handy for Washington in case something is to be held against the Chinese Communist Party. For this reason, from very early on, Donald Trump ordered an investigation into what happened.
However, documents declassified in recent days almost completely rule out that the covid was a product of genetic engineering and that it was developed as a biological weapon. They also acknowledge that “there is no direct evidence” that any incident occurred in the laboratory. In addition, they ensure that none of the coronaviruses collected by Chinese scientists “is close enough to being the progenitor of SARS-CoV-2.”
Despite everything, the declassified report from the director of National Intelligence of the United States leaves some doors open for lovers of conspiracies, since it recognizes that techniques were used that would make it difficult to detect genetic modifications, and that security standards were not the suitable. However, they affirm that the sick scientists “neither confirm nor refute” any thesis.
There is nothing conclusive. And more and more scientists fear that the origin of the pandemic will remain an unsolved mystery. In any case, it will always be a good throwing weapon for the two greatest world powers to engage in fights that will lead nowhere.
Is all for today. I hope I have explained well some of what is happening out there. If you are signed up, you will receive this newsletter every Wednesday in your email. And, if you like it, it will be very helpful if you share it and recommend it to your friends.
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