The tensions between Rome and Berlin on the issue of migrants are intertwined with the electoral calendar in Germany, where on October 8th we will vote for the renewal of the regional governments in Hesse and Bavaria. The regional vote in fact takes place in a context of general distrust towards politics, which the populist far right takes advantage of of Alternative for Germany. And i migrants have become a central theme of the debatechosen by the main opposition force, the conservatives of the CDU-CSU, to attack the government of the social democratic chancellor Olaf Scholz and to try to stop the advance of the AfD.
Bavaria and Hesse, challenge on the right between CDU and Afd
The post-Angela Merkel CDU has veered sharply to the right under the leadership of new leader Friederich Merz. Her recent statements about supposedly free dental care for asylum seekers while citizens have to wait have stirred up a hornet’s nest. The government denied these benefits, but the CDU did not back down. Merz says “what people talk about in the streets”, when “they are out on the election campaign in Bavaria, these are the issues that people are interested in”, declared Manfred Weber, a leading member of the Bavarian CSU and president of the Party European popular.
Bavaria is a stronghold of the Christian Social Union, sister group of the CDU. But the party’s domination of the southern German region is no longer as firm as it once was. If in 2003 the CSU could still garner 60.7% of the vote, in the last elections in 2018 it had fallen to 37.2%. The polls for October 8 are around 36% and the regional prime minister Markus Soeder, reconfirmed leader of the CSU, has attacked federal chancellor Olaf Scholz several times, accusing him of inaction on migrants. His recipe is an annual maximum limit of 200 thousand new migrants. And his goal is to block the path to the far right of the AfD, which he defines as a party of “servants of the Kremlin”.
Having entered the Bavarian parliament for the first time in 2018 with 10.2%, the AfD is shown in polls at 13-14%. But the CSU also has to deal with the rivalry on the right of the allies in the general government of the Free Voters. The party (11.6% in 2018) was not damaged at all by the scandal that hit its leader, the regional Minister of Economy Hubert Aiwanger, forced to distance himself from anti-Semitic leaflets that he had in his possession when he was in high school.
No less important are the elections in Hesse, a populous land that includes a crucial city like Frankfurt and from which the Social Democratic Interior Minister Nancy Faeser is originally from. Here the right and left have alternated in government and now there is a breakfast between the CDU and the Greens. Polls predict the CDU in first place with 31%, followed equally by the Greens and Social Democrats at 17%. But the AfD trails them at 16%, with the risk of becoming the second party.
Scholz coalition in difficulty
With populations of 6 and 13.2 million respectively, Hesse and Bavaria represent an important political test for Germany. But this is just an appetizer. Two years after taking office, the traffic light coalition led by Scholz appears to be in difficulty. Polls give the three parties that compose it – Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals – a paltry 37.7%. And the government is looking carefully at 2024, a super election year. On June 9th we will vote for the European elections but also for the renewal of the regional government of nine lands. While in September there will be voting in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg, three eastern regions where the AfD is currently leading the voting intentions with 30%.
Tajani and Crosetto, the latest Italian digs in Berlin
In the aftermath of the visit to Berlin and the new clash over the NGO ships, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani wondered whether there were “electoral interests” behind Germany’s attitude. Today the secretary of Forza Italia returned to the topic by attacking the German chancellor, who during the day announced additional controls on the borders with Austria and jointly with Switzerland and the Czech Republic to deal with too many refugees. “You can say what you want… They – he explained – have secondary immigration, we have a primary immigration problem. We have planned a strategy. We must look at the strategy, at European solidarity. In Germany they are in the election campaign, but there “It’s an important problem to solve, it’s not just the electoral campaign… We would like to understand what the German position is, it’s not clear what they say. We will evaluate, we’ll see, the migrants who want to go to Germany, it’s not that they have to send to Italy”, reiterated the Foreign Minister.
Also commenting on Scholz’s announcement was Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, who today launched a dig at X: “We are trying to block immigration in one part of Europe and facilitate its transportation to another. Consistent and brilliant,” he wrote.
Italy-Germany, tension remains high
On the topic of migrants and European management, therefore, the distance between Italy and Germany is still not closed and tension remains high. And with Berlin the controversy over NGOs also remains open. Behind Giorgia Meloni’s joke in Malta (“The Germans should stop showing solidarity with other people’s borders”), the difference in positions with Chancellor Scholz was in fact reiterated.
“I understand – Meloni explained to reporters – the German government, but if they want to go back on the rules of the NGOs, then we propose another amendment by virtue of which the country responsible for the reception of the migrants who are transported on the ship of a Ong is that of the ship’s flag”. Regarding the stalemate on the European Pact on Migrants, recorded on Thursday in Brussels, the Italian Prime Minister maintains her point: “Everyone will assume their responsibilities”.
“We have been very cooperative”, he added, in Europe and with the Germans “on the issue of the migration and asylum pact, we also voted for it because it improved conditions for us compared to the previous rules, then Germany arrived with some amendments , one in particular which for us represents a step backwards on the issue of non-governmental organisations”.
“Let’s see – he underlined – what the solution to this problem will be. We have our line, others have another, the problem is not to unload the line of one on the interests of the other”.
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